Stat of the Day, 27th August 2012
We're running a little late with SotD today, courtesy of a flooded kitchen chez Worrall, but the emergency Bank Holiday plumber (ouch!) has thankfully now sorted the problem.
Yesterday's selection was a bit of a duffer, if I'm honest. Mind you, if might have got closer to the action had he been able to avoid trouble on any of the three "skirmishes" he got involved in. Unfortunately bet365 didn't pay out and ifs and buts! A small moral victory of sorts yesterday for the braver souls amongst you, as Alan Jarvis' supposed 2nd string of the day came home at 20/1. I personally didn't fancy it and didn't back it, but the stats were there to suggest a decent run!
There is plenty of racing to go around today, but I'm sensing a distinct case of quantity rather than quality on offer and our daily search for a winner takes us to the Surrey Downs for a 12-runner, 5-furlong, Class 2 Handicap aka the...
Trainer Scott Dixon isn't the most well-known of the trainers currently plying their trade on the flat racing circuit, nor is he one of the busiest: just 202 runners in the last calendar year. He isn't even one of the most successful in terms of strike rate or return on stakes. His horses have only won 19 of those races (9.4%) and represent a loss of 35.2 pts of stakes invested ( -17.4%). As you know, I often like an E/W bet for SotD, but even Mr. Dixon place strike rate is a lowly 24.3% for the past year (49/202)
OK, so after such a great build-up (not!), why am I looking at him today? Quite simply, his record at Epsom is not only very good, albeit from an expectedly small sample size: it is also completely out of kilter with his records anywhere else.
Admittedly, he only sent his first two runners to Epsom a mere 4 months ago, but his record here since that day (25th April) reads 012113, which is quite remarkable when compared to his career stats. Like the last couple of days on SotD, Scott has two runners on the Downs: Monnoyer goes in the 2.30 race, where he might have a squeak of a chance of a place at 25/1, but my real interest lies with his runner in the subsequent race: Cadeaux Pearl.
Cadeaux Pearl is another of these quirky types, who runs in fits and starts, but when he's on his game has the ability to go well. His only outing at Epsom was on Scott Dixon's Epsom debut at that 25th April meeting, where he came home a winner at 25/1. The two horses immediately behind him that day have both gone on to win since and he now returns to try to make a follow-up at Course & Distance.
He will relish the recent wet weather too and he is interestingly reunited with Kieren Fallon today, who was also on board when recording that afore-mentioned 25/1 C&D success. I make no secret or apology of my liking for Mr Fallon's ability at getting horses home and the stats will help back up my good feeling at today's selection. Over the last couple of years Kieren has been one of the best, if not the best performer at Epsom. Eight wins from 31 attempts (25.81%) have brought a level stakes profit of 32pts (103.23% of stakes) and a further 7 rides have made the frame giving him a place strike rate of 48.4%. Mr Fallon also comes here in great form with 9 wins and 8 further places from 39 runs over the last fortnight alone.
So, we have Cadeaux Pearl: a course and distance winner (and a 4-time winner at this trip), Scott Dixon has a good training record at Epsom (admittedly a small sample size) and an in-form jockey who loves the course. There are several dangers to our selection today and since we can currently get 14/1 BOG with either of BetFred or William Hill, I'll be taking an E/W bet today, but you should...
Click here for the latest odds for the 3.05 Epsom.