Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day: 28/8

Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

SotD's pick yesterday was very disappointing indeed. The race was run at a blistering pace and Cadeaux Pearl was slow away from the stalls, slow during the race and finished slowly too! Our mount eventually trailed home last of all twelve runners and only ever had one horse behind him at any point in the race. I hold my hands up on this one: it really was a poor selection. Scott Dixon runs Sacrosanctus in the 2.50 at Epsom today and it should perform better for him, but I don't like to revisit the scene of a crime and as such, I'll look elsewhere. So, we/I need a winner and I'm hoping to make some money on the beach this evening with a course specialist...

6.20 Southwell

This looks a competitive Class 4 handicap and you could make a case for several of the eight runners scheduled to take part in this 1m6f race, but I think I've got a slight edge with today's selection: Shifting Gold.

Shifting Gold is somewhat of a Southwell specialist with a record of 4 wins and 6 places from just 16 races, whilst his record over today's trip reads 313211, ideal for an E/W bet if we can get a decent price. Our selection is trained by Kevin Ryan, who also has a good record with his other horses here at Southwell with a win strike rate of 31% (+43pts @ SP) and a place strike rate of 50% from a decent sample size of 110 entrants over the last two years. Amy Ryan rides many of these horses for Kevin, helping herself to 22 placed finished from 51 attempts and she takes the ride once again today. She has actually ridden Shifting Gold eleven times at this track, recording three wins and six other places from those races, so she obviously knows how to get a tune out of this one.

One other interesting aside is that Shifting Gold is out of Night Shift whose offspring boast a 54% place strike rate here at Southwell. The place strike rate stats for horse, jockey, trainer and sire allied to the current 10/1 BOG on offer from BoyleSports makes this an attractive E/W bet for me, but you can always wait and then...

Click here for the latest odds for the 6.20 Southwell.

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 28th August 2012

  1. Bullys Left Foot. Come on you Wolves!

    Chris, always re visit the scene of a crime to see if you have left any evidence!!! Just had an e/w touch on Sacrosanctus, thanks!!!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      That’s part of the frustration around SotD at times. We try and mix it up to give some varied content and I didn’t want to just repeat yesterday’s stats, but it does at least prove we were in the right vicinity! As an aside from yesterday, we put forward Croeso Mawr at Chepstow in mid-June and it finished second that day: it has since won iots next two outings at Chepstow, including yesterday’s run. Food for thought, if nothing else.

  2. Needers

    Yep, I did exactly the same! Had Sacrosanctus at 10-1 E/W. If you hadn’t mentioned it I probably wouldn’t have bothered, but as you did, the OCD in me came out as I felt I had to bet or I’d have regretted it. Turned out that was the case.

    Thanks very much, even if you didn’t mean it as a tip!

  3. Stuart

    “Had Sacrosanctus at 10-1 E/W.”

    Me too. After the awesome double last week, who could resist the temptation to have a pop at another. My fingers are now crossed so hard for Shifting Gold that they hurt!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Shifting Gold was absolutely terrible, I’m afraid.
      And I have to hold my hands up and admit that I didn’t realise that Amy was riding for Kevin in the following race, which she duly won at 9/4.
      The Law of Sod strikes again.

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