Stat of the Day, 26th September 2017

Monday's Result :

4.45 Leicester : Royal Melody @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 : Close up, headway over 3f out, tracked leaders, ridden 2f out, kept on one pace, went 3rd close home...

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

4.45 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly getting a handy 4lbs weight for age allowance, as she attempts to follow up her LTO win from almost 11 weeks ago over this trip on good to form ground at Bath. Yes, she's switching to the A/W here, but Lingfield's track is arguably the quickest artificial surface in the country, so it should be quick enough for her, assuming she takes to it, of course!

She hails from an in-form yard run by Clive Cox, whose runners are 13/54 (24.1% SR) and 6/27 (22.2% SR) over the last 30 and 14 days respectively, whilst his record with LTO winners stands at 27/106 (26.5% SR) for 56.3pts (+53.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of interest today...

  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 20/65 (30.8%) for 44.3pts (+68.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/56 (25%) for 22.1pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 13/48 (27.1%) for 24.4pts (+50.8%)

AND...3 yr old females ridden by Adam Kirby are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 5.92pts (+31.2% ROI).

But wait, there's more!

Since the start of 2013, Clive Cox's A/W handicappers are 39/248 (15.7% SR) for 69pts (+27.8% ROI) wit the following of particular relevance here...

  • those priced at 5/2 to 10/1 are 33/165 920%) for 83pts (+50.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 22/110 (20%) for 54.2pts (+49.3%)
  • females are 16/105 (15.2%) for 39.4pts (+37.5%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 19/104 (18.3%) for 26.3pts (+25.3%)
  • here at Lingfield : 7/41 (17.1%) for 37.7pts (+67.5%)
  • LTO winners are 8/34 (23.5%) for 10.4pts (+30.5%)
  • over a 1m trip : 8/33 (24.2%) for 38.7pts (+117.3%)
  • and on handicap debut : 7/29 (24.1%) for 21.6pts (+74.4%)

...all justifying... a 1pt win bet on Unified @ 4/1 or 7/2 BOG, which was offered by Paddy Power and Sky Bet respectively at 5.35pm on Monday, whilst both Betfred and Totesport were at 7/2 non-BOG. They go BOG on the morning of races and I'll be settling up at Sky's 7/2. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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