Stat of the Day, 26th May 2017

Thursday's Result :

5.05 Warwick : Bronco Billy @ 5/2 BOG (15/8 after a 25p R4) WON at 10/11 In rear in 3rd and well behind, headway to take 2nd 7 out, led before 4 out, clear from 3 out, won easily by 15 lengths.

Friday's pick goes in the...

6.40 Musselburgh...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG

Why?

Here we have a 4yr old gelding who was 0 from 9 at the turn of the year, but since a switch to Keith Dalgleish's yard is now 2 from 2 in 2017! The latest of those wins came here 22 days ago, here at Musselburgh over 1m6f, when ridden by today's jockey, Joe Fanning, for the first time.

Joe, for his part, rides Musselburgh well as exemplified by his 76 winners from 391 (19.4% SR) since 2009 and although the level stakes profits seem modest at 25.4pts, an ROI of 6.5% from blindly backing a jockey with almost 400 rides at one track is actually pretty good.

As for the trainer, Keith Dalgleish, he also has a decent record here with 44 winners from 307 (14.3% SR) since the start of 2013 generating profits of 75.6pts at a healthy ROI of 24.6%, including of note/relevance today...

  • those who last ran 16-25 days ago : 14/83 (16.9%) for 97.9pts (+118%)
  • LTO winners are 13/35 (37.1%) for 41.1pts (+117.3%)
  • and at 1m 4.5f : 7/22 (31.8%) for 30pts (+136.5%)

And finally, back to the horse,Sebastians Wish , he's also of note on his own accord, as he scores well on the Geegeez Shortlist, with a green rating for going, class and course with an amber score for distance. In numerical terms, this means he's won on good to firm ground already, both his wins this year have been at today's Class 6 and he's 1 from 1 here at Musselburgh.

As for his amber rating for distance, he has no wins at today's 1m4.4f trip, but does have wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, so the trip is definitely "gettable" for him and also don't forget two other bits of data from earlier : he's 2 from 2 for his new trainer and 1 from 1 under today's jockey...

...but for now...a 1pt win bet on Sebastians Wish10/3 BOG which was widely available at 6.40pm on Thursday, but those able to grab the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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