Stat of the Day, 26th May 2015
Presenting Junior gave us a real good run for our money at Cartmel, just failing by a length to reel in a winner who had managed to open a decent lead approaching the turn for home.
Some might say, our lad could have been kept a little closer, but I think the winner stayed on better than expected, otherwise it would have been a well-timed finish.
The major surprise for me was the eventual 11/2 SP, which was borderline E/W territory for some of you. I was happy enought to take 7/2 BOG the night before and baed on the run, he wasn't an 11/2 shot, but he wasn't a winner either, so I suppose the odds discussion is a moot point.
A trip to the North East and a late one beckons in Tuesday's...
Where Stuart Coltherd attempts to take advantage of Seventeen Black's upturn in form by sending him out fairly quickly. This horse had failed to even make the frame in any of his ten career starts before winning by a length and three quarters off a reduced mark of 74 at Perth last time out.
That was just 13 days ago and Seventeen Black is now priced up at 11/4 BOG with Bet 365 to repeat the feat.
In NH handicaps since 2011, Stuart Coltherd's record stands at 45 winners from 297 (15.2% SR) runners that have produced level stakes profits of 178.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% and a quick look at today's race conditions inspires confidence, because his record fit today's contest as follows...
- 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 67pts (+63.8% ROI) at Class 5
- 23/118 (129.5% SR) for 123.4pts (+104.6% ROI) at trips of 2m to 2m2f
- 13/66 (19.7% SR) for 54.9pts (+83.2% ROI) on good ground
- 9/29 (31% SR) for 53.9pts (+185.8% ROI) here at Hexham.
As I said earlier, Seventeen Black is quickly turned out after a win preceded by a string of unplaced efforts, but rather than viewing this as a fluke, there is some compelling data to suggest he could very well win again.
Since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers who won last out after a string of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts and who were turned out again 11 to 30 days later, achieved back-to-back wins on 105 of 482 (21.8% SR) occasions. Surely this has to be more than a fluke? The returned profits of 212.7pts at an ROI of 44.1% certainly make happy reading though.
Of that 105/482 stat, those who "only" won by a neck to 4 lengths won again on 55 of 250 occasions (22% SR) and produced level stakes profits of 167.4pts at an ROI of 67%.
Stuart Coltherd is a canny trainer and you can be sure he'll have dotted the i's and crossed the t's in a bid to get this horse prepared exactly as he was last time out and if things go to plan, we should get the same results as LTO. He was 3/1 that day and he's currently just shy of that at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who currently offer the best price (10.15pm : Monday).
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