Stat of the Day, 26th May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2015

Presenting Junior gave us a real good run for our money at Cartmel, just failing by a length to reel in a winner who had managed to open a decent lead approaching the turn for home.

Some might say, our lad could have been kept a little closer, but I think the winner stayed on better than expected, otherwise it would have been a well-timed finish.

The major surprise for me was the eventual 11/2 SP, which was borderline E/W territory for some of you. I was happy enought to take 7/2 BOG the night before and baed on the run, he wasn't an 11/2 shot, but he wasn't a winner either, so I suppose the odds discussion is a moot point.

A trip to the North East and a late one beckons in Tuesday's...

9.10 Hexham:

Where Stuart Coltherd attempts to take advantage of Seventeen Black's upturn in form by sending him out fairly quickly. This horse had failed to even make the frame in any of his ten career starts before winning by a length and three quarters off a reduced mark of 74 at Perth last time out.

That was just 13 days ago and Seventeen Black is now priced up at 11/4 BOG with Bet 365 to repeat the feat.

In NH handicaps since 2011, Stuart Coltherd's record stands at 45 winners from 297 (15.2% SR) runners that have produced level stakes profits of 178.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% and a quick look at today's race conditions inspires confidence, because his record fit today's contest as follows...

  • 17/105 (16.2% SR) for 67pts (+63.8% ROI) at Class 5
  • 23/118 (129.5% SR) for 123.4pts (+104.6% ROI) at trips of 2m to 2m2f
  • 13/66 (19.7% SR) for 54.9pts (+83.2% ROI) on good ground
  • 9/29 (31% SR) for 53.9pts (+185.8% ROI) here at Hexham.

As I said earlier, Seventeen Black is quickly turned out after a win preceded by a string of unplaced efforts, but rather than viewing this as a fluke, there is some compelling data to suggest he could very well win again.

Since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers who won last out after a string of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts and who were turned out again 11 to 30 days later, achieved back-to-back wins on 105 of 482 (21.8% SR) occasions. Surely this has to be more than a fluke? The returned profits of 212.7pts at an ROI of 44.1% certainly make happy reading though.

Of that 105/482 stat, those who "only" won by a neck to 4 lengths won again on 55 of 250 occasions (22% SR) and produced level stakes profits of 167.4pts at an ROI of 67%.

Stuart Coltherd is a canny trainer and you can be sure he'll have dotted the i's and crossed the t's in a bid to get this horse prepared exactly as he was last time out and if things go to plan, we should get the same results as LTO. He was 3/1 that day and he's currently just shy of that at 11/4 BOG with Bet365, who currently offer the best price (10.15pm : Monday).

I'm not sure what time you're reading this, so please check that price is still the best on offer by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 9.10 Hexham

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Here is today's racecard.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 26th May 2015

  1. jethro

    Hi Chris, we were indeed a bit stiff with Presenting Junior who absolutely trounced all but one of the opposition. That’s racing…

    Just a question re Seventeen Black tonight – the ground at Hexham is described as “good” and I see the only worthwhile form the horse has ever shown previously is on “soft” ground – once when falling near the finish when close up; and the other time when it won on its most recent start. Although I see you have noted that the trainer does well with horses on “good” ground; do you think the breeding tends to suggest that the horse will also enjoy good ground?

    Keep up the fine work – Cheers…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Realistically, bar winning last time out, the horse has shown little form of any kind on any ground!

      However, I’m now not entirely convinced this morning about the ground being good ground.
      The goingstick this morning showed at 6.4, which on average is more good to soft than good!
      The trainer’s form on good ground was just one small piece of the jigsaw in fairness, his overall ability to get horses to win is the key here, plus the fact that horse has recently come into form.

      PS The last two meetings at Hexham for which I have the goingstick ratings, they were both 6.5.
      One was officially deemed as Good to Soft (Soft in places) and the other Soft (Good to Soft in places), so I’d suggest that today’s 6.4 is slightly better than that!

  2. jethro

    Many thanks for taking the time to respond in depth Chris. Despite the number of obviously positive aspects which you have clearly outlined above, I might just keep to a modest wager today as the track conditions still give me a niggling overall concern.
    Best of luck anyway and I can only admire the depth of research you always put in to your selections. Your results also speak for themselves, so I am more than likely shooting myself in the foot here today!

  3. (John) Paul Ambrose

    Is that the second day on the trot we have arguably backed the best horse in the race, only to lose? I don’t think the loose horse helped us there, if I’m not being a little kind to our jockey.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hmmmm, you’re not wrong.

      Monday’s runner was asked to do too much on reflection, whilst it was clearly a mistake to go the long way across to the far rail tonight. The loose horse certainly didn’t help, but up to that last flight, our jockey had ridden the perfect race.

      Perhaps he panicked a little? Or maybe that’s why he’s now 0/16, despite making the frame 8 times.

      Who knows, eh? But it’s a bit galling to be -2pts this week when we could/should easily have been +10!

      We’ll try again tomorrow.

  4. Doshtosh

    I don’t like losing, at anytime, yesterday hurt, but the reason was obvious, and the horse was a hero. Tonight’s horse didn’t do anything wrong, either, but the circumstances were wrong, if we had a bit of luck on our side and got that rail we were sure fire winners. That’s one that does hurt, in a different way, without any other reason apart from bad luck. Oh well, such is life…I suppose.

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