Stat of the Day, 26th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2015

Wilde Inspiration ran a bit of a stinker for us on Thursday afternoon, I'm afraid, but there are always going to be days like that. Apparently, it's character building 😀

Bottom line is he that he was the last of 8 home, beaten by some 17 lengths after weakening badly late on. It was totally of the norm for the way he normally runs, I do hope he's OK.

Friday looks tricky, but I'm looking at the...

7.25 Newmarket:

As I said, it looks tricky today, so I'm going to keep it simple and not draw on one of my more elaborate micro-systems, but instead I'm looking for some help from a couple of famous names!

Nobody is more pleased than I am to see Frankie Dettori rejuvenated and he's bang in form at the minute with 14 winners from just 64 rides (21.88% SR) in the last month and I'd expect him to stand a very good of adding to that tally on board Secateur at 7/2 BOG here.

Secateur is trained by John Gosden, who has done well here on the July course in recent years with 30 winners from 142 (21.1% SR) runners since the start of the 2012 campaign. Those runners have produced level stakes profits of 133pts at an ROI of 93.7% and with today's contest in mind, we can break the 142 runners down as follows...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 65.3pts (+73.4% ROI)
  • Those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 are 18/68 (26.5% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
  • Those competing over 1m4f/1m5f are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 82.8pts (+359.8% ROI).

Each of which suggest we can expect a decent run for our money from Secateur.

The fact that Frankie is on board is also a positive, not just because of his obvious ability or his recent return to form, but he also has a longer-term good record of delivering the goods for John Gosden when the money is on the table. Since the start of 2010, the Gosden/Dettori alliance is 20 from 54 (37% SR) for 14.6pts (+27.1% ROI) profit on horses priced at 5/1 or shorter.

With this in mind and hopeful that Secateur will cut his rivals down to size (sorry!), I've taken some of the 7/2 BOG on offer from Paddy Power, but you can get the same from both Boylesports and Seanie Mac, whilst the other firms' prices will appear by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.25 Newmarket

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10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 26th June 2015

  1. FGR

    Apologies, Chris. My mistake, I did misinterpret yesterdays comment regarding staking.
    I’ll be going in with a 1 pt level stake to a 60 pt bank.
    A complimentary back-to-lay may also be viable if selections contract sufficiently on the exchanges.
    I’d appreciate your thoughts on this. My reasoning is that all successful tipping services suffer from a degree of exposure, making the back-to-lay an attractive proposition providing you can get on early enough. But you’d know more about the impact of SOTD on the betting market than I do.

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