Stat of the Day, 26th June 2015
Wilde Inspiration ran a bit of a stinker for us on Thursday afternoon, I'm afraid, but there are always going to be days like that. Apparently, it's character building 😀
Bottom line is he that he was the last of 8 home, beaten by some 17 lengths after weakening badly late on. It was totally of the norm for the way he normally runs, I do hope he's OK.
Friday looks tricky, but I'm looking at the...
As I said, it looks tricky today, so I'm going to keep it simple and not draw on one of my more elaborate micro-systems, but instead I'm looking for some help from a couple of famous names!
Nobody is more pleased than I am to see Frankie Dettori rejuvenated and he's bang in form at the minute with 14 winners from just 64 rides (21.88% SR) in the last month and I'd expect him to stand a very good of adding to that tally on board Secateur at 7/2 BOG here.
Secateur is trained by John Gosden, who has done well here on the July course in recent years with 30 winners from 142 (21.1% SR) runners since the start of the 2012 campaign. Those runners have produced level stakes profits of 133pts at an ROI of 93.7% and with today's contest in mind, we can break the 142 runners down as follows...
- Class 4/5 runners are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 65.3pts (+73.4% ROI)
- Those priced at 15/8 to 6/1 are 18/68 (26.5% SR) for 15.7pts (+23.1% ROI)
- Those competing over 1m4f/1m5f are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 82.8pts (+359.8% ROI).
Each of which suggest we can expect a decent run for our money from Secateur.
The fact that Frankie is on board is also a positive, not just because of his obvious ability or his recent return to form, but he also has a longer-term good record of delivering the goods for John Gosden when the money is on the table. Since the start of 2010, the Gosden/Dettori alliance is 20 from 54 (37% SR) for 14.6pts (+27.1% ROI) profit on horses priced at 5/1 or shorter.
With this in mind and hopeful that Secateur will cut his rivals down to size (sorry!), I've taken some of the 7/2 BOG on offer from Paddy Power, but you can get the same from both Boylesports and Seanie Mac, whilst the other firms' prices will appear by...
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