Thursday's Result :
3.20 Huntingdon : Comragh @ 9/2 BOG distant 7th of 7 at 9/4 (Led, wandered into 1st, headed next, lost 2nd after 5th, weakened after 3 out. Trainer reported that the mare had a breathing problem)
Friday's runner goes in the...
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Howlongisafoot @ 6/1 BOG
Both trainer and jockey are in good form, the yard has a good record at the track and the horse should be well suited by today's conditions. In numerical terms, this is where I'm coming from...
The trainer... is Paul Nicholls and despite his abundant success over the years, there aren't many blind backing angels to take to guarantee profit, but here at Warwick since the start of 2011, you could have just backed all his runners and walked away with more money than you started with, which is the plan after all!
So, his record here currently stands at 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.5pts at an ROI of 38.5%, which is pretty dsecent, but there are refinements available that make the figures even better, such as...
- those unrated or rated 133-143 are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 19.23pts (+71.2% ROI)
- those sent off at 6/5 to 15/2 are 10/27 (37% SR) for 18.9pts (+70% ROI)
- 5 to 7 yr olds are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
- those who last ran 2 to 10 weeks ago are 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 16.1pts (+67% ROI)
- chasers are 9/20 (45% SR) for 10.6pts (+52.9% ROI)
- those running in the months of January & February are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 9.67pts (+53.7% ROI)
- those carrying 11st to 11-5 (after any claims) are 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 14.44pts (+111.1% ROI)
- Soft ground runners are 5/10 (50% SR) for 10.54pts (+105.4% ROI)
In addition to those track-specific 5yr figures, the Nicholls yard has roared back to form after a quiet time earlier in the season and over the last fortnight, the yard is 14 from 34 (41.2% SR) with chasers winning 6 times and making the frame on a further three occasions from just 12 runs. (50% win SR and 75% place SR), whilst in the last week things are even better with 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) for the yard, with the six chase runs yielding finishes of 11U311.
Jockey Harry Cobden has 4 winners and 3 placers from 12 rides over the last month and his sole ride on Thursday was a win in the SotD race, when he gave Hope's Wishes a well-timed patient ride to win by two lengths. In fact, it's to Harry's credit that the horse raced at all, as she was very reluctant to go again.
The fact that Harry takes the ride here and claims 7lbs, actually puts Howlongisafoot a pound better off than when he last won three starts ago, so we should be getting a decent run for our money from a horse that is 3 from 9 over fences to date and of those 9 runs, I find the following of some interest...
...he's 3 from 6 at 6/1 and shorter, 3 from 5 in fields of 9 runners or less and 3 from 3 when running 25 to 65 days after his last outing. Throw into the mix a soft ground win, a win in blinkers and a win at this trip and I'm not quite sure why/how he's the price he is!
So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Howlongisafoot at 6/1 BOG, a price currently (6.20pm) available with any one of nine different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...
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