Stat of the Day, 26th February 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.20 Huntingdon : Comragh @ 9/2 BOG distant 7th of 7 at 9/4 (Led, wandered into 1st, headed next, lost 2nd after 5th, weakened after 3 out. Trainer reported that the mare had a breathing problem)

Friday's runner goes in the...

3.45 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Howlongisafoot @ 6/1 BOG

Why?

Both trainer and jockey are in good form, the yard has a good record at the track and the horse should be well suited by today's conditions. In numerical terms, this is where I'm coming from...

The trainer... is Paul Nicholls and despite his abundant success over the years, there aren't many blind backing angels to take to guarantee profit, but here at Warwick since the start of 2011, you could have just backed all his runners and walked away with more money than you started with, which is the plan after all!

So, his record here currently stands at 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR) for 13.5pts at an ROI of 38.5%, which is pretty dsecent, but there are refinements available that make the figures even better, such as...

  • those unrated or rated 133-143 are 11/27 (40.7% SR) for 19.23pts (+71.2% ROI)
  • those sent off at 6/5 to 15/2 are 10/27 (37% SR) for 18.9pts (+70% ROI)
  • 5 to 7 yr olds are 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 10.4pts (+43.4% ROI)
  • those who last ran 2 to 10 weeks ago are 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 16.1pts (+67% ROI)
  • chasers are 9/20 (45% SR) for 10.6pts (+52.9% ROI)
  • those running in the months of January & February are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 9.67pts (+53.7% ROI)
  • those carrying 11st to 11-5 (after any claims) are 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 14.44pts (+111.1% ROI)
  • Soft ground runners are 5/10 (50% SR) for 10.54pts (+105.4% ROI)

In addition to those track-specific 5yr figures, the Nicholls yard has roared back to form after a quiet time earlier in the season and over the last fortnight, the yard is 14 from 34 (41.2% SR) with chasers winning 6 times and making the frame on a further three occasions from just 12 runs. (50% win SR and 75% place SR), whilst in the last week things are even better with 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) for the yard, with the six chase runs yielding finishes of 11U311.

Jockey Harry Cobden has 4 winners and 3 placers from 12 rides over the last month and his sole ride on Thursday was a win in the SotD race, when he gave Hope's Wishes a well-timed patient ride to win by two lengths. In fact, it's to Harry's credit that the horse raced at all, as she was very reluctant to go again.

The fact that Harry takes the ride here and claims 7lbs, actually puts Howlongisafoot a pound better off than when he last won three starts ago, so we should be getting a decent run for our money from a horse that is 3 from 9 over fences to date and of those 9 runs, I find the following of some interest...

...he's 3 from 6 at 6/1 and shorter, 3 from 5 in fields of 9 runners or less and 3 from 3 when running 25 to 65 days after his last outing. Throw into the mix a soft ground win, a win in blinkers and a win at this trip and I'm not quite sure why/how he's the price he is!

So today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Howlongisafoot at 6/1 BOG, a price currently (6.20pm) available with any one of nine different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 26th February 2016

  1. Doshtosh

    There’s been better weeks. There’s been better months! Are there any prospects apart from more of the same? It’s right to praise the system when it’s going well, but in it’s present form one would be as well following Derek Thompson. (well, apart from all the lies he’d throw in as well) This is not good.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Really surprised by that comment, John. I have to say, and I hope you’ll take this in the spirit intended, that’s a ‘muggy’ thing to say.

      If you can detect one difference in selection methodology in the last month from the selection methodology in August last year… or July… or, well, any previous month, then it’s a fair comment.

      But the reality is that the method is the same. The exact same. We over-performed for a while. And now we’re under-performing for a while. One of the greatest aspects of running a site like geegeez is that most of its community ‘gets it’. I certainly thought you did. In fact, I know you do.

      It’s bloody frustrating just now. Do you think Chris is not frustrated? You have the option to scale back stakes, and the right to not bet, and even the right to cancel your sub (though, without checking, I suspect you’re a Lifer). But I hope you’ll choose to review the Thommo comment – which is actually f’cking offensive given how much effort Chris puts into his selections – and accept that we go again tomorrow.

      Thanks for being a long-term supporter, John. We genuinely appreciate it. And I respect your right to vent your spleen. But I just feel this isn’t the most constructive observation ever…

      Matt

  2. Doshtosh

    I’m always one of the first to show my appreciation to both you and, in particular, Chris when things are ticking over as we hope, but as I have that right, then, surely, after two or three months of extremely poor results one has the right to voice concerns and opinions. Should next week produce three or four wins (please God) then you guys, naturally, will inform as many non-converts on Twitter, etc; as possible, that’s natural, therefore, it’s equally natural, if not done as promptly, to voice concerns when, for an age, things go so wrong. Were I in a position to meet you guys in a bar, somewhere, I would say the same things to your face, I’d also buy you very large drinks to thank you for your past results, and for your current efforts, but the past results are what I’d praise, that’s the way I am.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Like I say, John, you’re entitled to share your view. And yes, you’re always fulsome in your praise in the good times, which we appreciate.

      The point I’m trying to make is that nothing within our control has changed. The selection approach is the same, the statistical content is the same, the results are different.

      As for twitter promotion, yes of course we do that, though not even remotely as much as other sites. It’s not really our style. But we are a business and we are trying to make money, for the business and for our subscribers (and not necessarily in that order, which is why geegeez has nearly gone skint on two occasions historically).

      Tipping is the most polarizing of activities and it’s one I personally hate. I salute Chris for his fortitude: he has to dust himself down after every reversal and go again. He’s able to do that mainly because he never gets too ‘up’ in the good times. In other words, he knows yin and yang are inevitable functions of the punting cycle.

      Let’s hope the wheel turns soon, John. And I hope you have a great weekend – with a few winners, possibly even one found in these pages.

      Matt

      p.s. I’m thinking of arranging a geegeez social. Might be fun!

  3. rjtilt

    The current run is very disappointing, and I can fully understand people wanting to express their frustrations. However, as Matt rightly points out, no one is compelled to back any of the horses. We all need to accept responsibility for following a tipster, rather than relying on our own judgement.

  4. jethro

    As a lifetime member for a few years now, I can easily see that the current bad SotD run is being misconstrued. Last Summer saw fabulous results for SotD and I think the big difference between then and now is that winners are generally very much easier to select during the turf flat racing season. I have personally reigned in my bet stakes over recent times, albeit not as much as I should have – however it’s always easy to be wise after the event!
    Over the last three months or so, I can easily see that Chris (who has to pick a SotD horse every day except Sunday) is regularly faced with just a couple of race meetings on; and therefore forced into selecting one of the old faithful’s which run round and around the all-weather tracks, or a national hunt horse who also not only has to beat the other competitors in the race, it also has to clear all the jumps! Looking back, the SotD results over the December-March period last year, are very similar to the same period this year. Indeed, there must be many a day where Chris has trouble finding one horse to nominate as a selection!
    Chris – I notice with all your SotD selections historically, it is either a 1 pt win or occasionally a 0.5 pt each-way. Has anyone suggested that you utilize this points system to a larger extent, gauged by your own personal confidence in each selection? (I.e. On a bad day’s racing with just a few plodders to choose from, you might just recommend a 0.5 pt bet for an interest; whereas on a good day or when a horses stats really stand out in a particular race, you might recommend a 3 pt bet or more?)
    My apologies if this idea has been raised before in the geegeez forum or elsewhere, I don’t have as much time to devote to reading all the valuable info on this site as I would like…
    Either way, to both the newbies and the longer term geegeez members, this current run will turn around again; and historically from my records, it will pick up again with more consistency, towards the end of March. That is when I will personally be raising my stakes once again.
    Cheers all….

  5. bigvern63

    Look on the bright side, Horses for Courses threw up a nice 28-1 at Wolverhampton in Spes Nostra!!!

    And that is what I love about this site, there is a plethora of information and you use what you choose to use…..no one is forced to place a bet and we all have our own systems, staking plans, etc…

    Personally, I follow SOTD religiously and will continue to do so as there will always be ups and downs. However, geegeez.co.uk is so much more than a tipping service and in my opinion, there is no other site that comes close to providing the racing enthusiast with so much info., insight, reports, interesting articles.

    Here’s to the next sotd winner, whenever it comes!!!

    Cheers, Chris

  6. bigvern63

    P.S. Credit where credit is due, Spes Nostra also on The Shortlist, was wondering why it popped up twice in my multiples, unfortunately it was the only one to oblige in both cases!!

  7. jamesfeeney

    As for stat of the day , I am celebrating my first full year following it today and it was a great year… many thanks to Chris and Matt. we’re just in a bad run and have to accept it , or stop betting! We had a great run and now it’s levelling itself out. It will pick up again

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.