Stat of the Day, 26th February 2014
Turf Trivia was absolutely friendless in the market yesterday and rather than shortening into my expected 9/2 or 5/1 mark, my so-called value bet at 13/2 looked a little strange as the horse was sent off at 9/1.
In the end, he didn't complete the course, becoming one of four fallers in a seven-horse race. North Wales is our next port of call as we tackle the...
Which looks an interesting contest on paper and where Rebecca Curtis gives Churchtown Love her UK race debut. The horse isn't a complete stranger to race action, having competed in two Irish points races, winning last out at Belharbour on soft ground. She had previously fallen on debut 2 from home when in second place competing for the lead (heavy ground at Nenagh).
Those two previous outings on soft/heavy ground will stand her in good stead here today, as we're expecting more heavy going, as seems to be the norm of late!
This, however, could well be to our advantage, as Rebecca Curtis' record with her runners on heavy ground is good. In the last four years, she has sent out 67 runners onto heavy ground priced at 6/1 or under and has seen 21 (31.3% SR) of them come back as winners. The resulting profits from those horses is 18.22pts to a 1pt level stake, an ROI of 27.2%.
Yet, every last penny of the profit can be attributed to her hurdlers, as the chasers and bumpers have just about broke even, leaving her with a record of 13/38 for 18.22pts with her heavy ground hurdlers priced at 6/1 or under. This impressive 34.2% strike rate has brought about an ROI of 47.95%,
Ms Curtis also has an excellent record here at Bangor with her 6/1 and runners ie if the money's down, get on it! Since the start of 2009, her record here is 19 winners from the 47 runners sent off at 6/1 or under, a 40.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 11.33pts, or 24.1% of stakes invested.
And of those 47 runners, we find a record of 15 winners from 33 in non-handicap events like today's with this 45.5% strike rate rewarding the yard's followers with 16.1pts (+48.7% ROI) profit.
Now Rebecca Curtis isn't one of those trainers who excels with horses that have never raced before, but does do well with those with limited experience, who aren't already exposed. Over the last couple of years, if we look at her horses that have already raced between one and three times in the past and we then apply a 4/1 odds cap on them, we see that she has trained 24 winners from 56, a strike rate of 42.9% giving profits of 22.44pts, an ROI of 40.1%.
Twenty-three of those horse had already won in the past and thirteen (56.5% SR) of them went on to win again producing excellent profits of 19.34pts (+84.1% ROI). I'm aware that this is a small sample size, but it does lend more credibility to the earlier stats.
As the markets began to open this morning, I saw that Churchtown Love was installed as second favourite and rather than wait for every firm to price this up (four had done so by 8.20 am), I want to make sure I get a reasonable price about the selection.
So, I've just placed a 1pt win bet on Churchtown Love at the 11/4 BOG on offer from Bet365. You can, of course, either follow my lead or wait for a full market to form. Either way, I still suggest that you...