Stat of the Day, 26th December 2013
Wayward Glance wasn't completely out of it, when he fell four fences from home on Sunday, but fall he did and that took away our chances of entering the Christmas break on a high.
I, of course, had taken leave last weekend and after a hectic few days, during which I became a grandfather for the first time (2.45am on Christmas morning!), I'm back to resume duties here at SotD.
Pre-Christmas, racing was sadly lacking in both quality and quantity, but we have held out own here and whilst today certainly brings the quantity element back in play, I'm going to try and find a quality bet for you in the...
Where jockey Barry McHugh will be aiming to increase his already impressive 2013 profits from Wolverhampton handicaps. Whilst his 6/42 (14.6% SR) record this year isn't earth shattering, it's still decent and when you factor in his level stakes profits of 53.43pts for the year, the ROI of 127.2% certainly grabs the attention.
Barry has just the one ride today, in the form of Tukitinyasok, who comes here on the back of an excellent 25/1 win over course and distance in a similar contest just 13 days ago. We're not going to get such a larghe price today, but there are compelling reasons to back him again.
Firstly, horses that won at 25/1 or over last time out and run again at the same class, priced in the 5/2 to 10/1 priceband are 21/76 (27.6% SR) for 62.46pts (+82.2% ROI) this year.
Further to that, data from the last 5 years suggests backing LTO winners in Class 6 handicaps at Wolverhampton can be profitable in the right conditions ie same class & distance as LTO and running within 6 weeks of that win, but with at least 5 days recovery time. When those horses won after a run of at least three unplaced efforts, they have a record of 19/80 when sent off between 5/2 and 20/1.
This 23.75% strike rate has yielded level stakes profits of almost 76pts and whilst just 16 bets per year is a bit of a slowburner, it has proved to be profitable in each of he last five years and the 95% ROI makes it a welcome addition to any portfolio of micro-systems.
Tukitinyasok fulfills both criteria as a bove and looks a decent E/W bet at a generally available 8/1 BOG. I've put mine on with SkyBet this morning, purely because I've more money in that account than elsewhere, so you really should...
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