Stat of the Day, 26th April 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.40 Wolverhampton : Tavener @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 Led, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and headed towards finish, beaten by half a length

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Catterick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly finished 4223 in four starts last season in better races than this, including a 2.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap last time out. That was at Newmarket behind Island Vision who was subsequently placed third in a Listed contest.

A similar effort three classes lower should surely be enough, but don't just take my word for it, there are (as always!) some numbers to back up my thoughts!

She's trained by Richard Fahey, whose runners here at Catterick are 43/190 (22.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+23.6% ROI) since the start of the 2012 campaign, with the following data of particular relevance today...

  • 2 to 4 yr olds are 37/149 (24.8%) for 49.3pts (+33.1%)
  • those racing over 6 / 7 furlongs are 27/110 (24.5%) for 54.8pts (+49.8%)
  • those priced at 7/4 to 8/1 are 32/104 (30.8%) for 70.3pts (+67.6%)
  • those with 2 to 12 previous career runs are 28/89 (31.5%) for 44.9pts (+50.5%)
  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 24/82 (29.3%) for 60.9pts (+74.3%)
  • females are 18/69 (26.1%) for 37.9pts (+55%)
  • at Class 5 : 18/68 (26.5%) for 16.2pts (+23.8%)
  • in maidens : 12/48 (25%) for 4.76pts (+9.9%)
  • and in female only races : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.96pts (+68.9%)

PLUS... backing all Richard Fahey's 2 to 5 yr olds on the Flat (turf) during the month of April has yielded 138 winners from 701 runners (19.7% SR) and 227.8pts (+32.5% ROI) of level stakes profits since the start of the 2009 season, of which...

  • Class 5 runners are 56/262 (21.4%) for 64.4pts (+24.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 47/248 (19%) for 54.7pts (+22.1%)
  • in non-handicap contests : 56/222 (25.2%) for 94.9pts (+42.8%)
  • in maidens : 31/137 (22.6%) for 21.8pts (+15.9%)
  • over the 7f trip : 21/93 (22.6%) for 52.8pts (+56.7%)
  • and in female only races : 13/52 (25%) for 58pts at an ROI of 111.5%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Aimez La Vie7/2 BOG with any one of the dozen firms quoting the same price at 7.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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