Stat of the Day, 25th November 2015

Stat of the Day, 25th November 2015

Tuesday's Result :

1.00 Lingfield : Midnight Silver @ 4/1 BOG 3rd of 8 at 2/1
(Tracked leaders, every chance 3 out, weakened soon after next, left in modest 4th last , took 3rd in closing stages)

Wednesday's selection runs in the...

7.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lancelot du Lac @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Well, he's no stranger to this race, having won it in 2013 and making the frame when beaten by just over a length last year, when he hadn't quite timed his run correctly. He was a winner over course and distance here three starts ago off a mark of 108, but runs here off just 105 after losing his last two outings.

Mind you, those two runs were a Group 1 contest at Ascot and a Listed race at Doncaster on heavy ground 18 days ago, where he was only beaten by just over half a length and he now drops down in class to compete here at a venue where he now has rtwo wins and a place from just four attempts over course and distance.

Trainer Dean Ivory's record over the last five years with handicappers dropping in class is decent enough with 22 winners from 190 (11.6% SR) for 56.2pts profit at an ROI of 29.6%, but those figures improve when placed into the context of today's race, as they are...

  • 21/171 (12.3% SR) for 54.3pts (+31.7% ROI) when dropping down 1 grade
  • 20/159 (12.6% SR) for 71.4 pts (+44.9% ROI) aged 2 to 6
  • 12/73 (16.4% SR) for 70.8pts (+96.9% ROI) over 5/6 furlongs
  • 15/62 (24.2% SR) for 69.2pts (+111.6% ROI) from those beaten by less than 5 lengths last time out.
  • 7/59 (11.9% SR) for 29pts (+49.1% ROI) here at Kempton
  • 10/58 (17.2% SR) for 39.9pts (+68.7% ROI) 11 to 20 days aftertheir last run
  • 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 31pts (+238.4% ROI) at this Class 2 level

And Dean Ivory's 2 to 6 yr olds dropping down 1 class to run 5 to 7 furlongs at Kempton off the back of a defeat by less than 5 lengths LTO are 5/13 (38.5% SR) for 33.1pts (+254.5% ROI) with three winners from four priced at 9/2 or shorter generating 9.77pts profit.

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 6.20pm?

A 1pt win bet on Lancelot du Lac at 3/1 BOG with one of a number of firms, whilst Ladbrokes offer slightly more at 100/30, but don't go BOG until morning. I'm using 10BET, because I'll get my money back if we lose by a heads, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th November 2015

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. It might teach me to stop trying to be clever…I put half a point on at 100/30 at Ladbrokes as the price had been 4s earlier in the evening, but it just carried on collapsing and I decided not to put the other half on today. Still, profit’s profit.
    Paul

      1. Everyone calls me Paul

        I follow you almost blindly, Chris, but occasionally make value judgements…they can drift too (and I guess that’s why you took the 3s on offer even though Ladbroke’s were 100/30). I’d not been online earlier in the evening when BRBB advised – each way! – at 4s, so I’d already missed that price and thought it may reverse in the morning. Some you win.
        Paul

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