Stat of the Day, 25th May 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Lingfield : Hope is High @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 Prominent early, tracked leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, about 1 length down when tightened up and lost 2nd well inside final furlong, lost 3rd post

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.05 Warwick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bronco Billy5/2 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding who was a winner last time out, 27 days ago. That was over a slightly shorter trip, but he has won over today's trip as a hurdler.

His trainer Jonjo O'Neill has a steady, if unspectacular overall record here at Warwick since 2013 with 18 winners from 137 (13.1% SR) for 39.3pts (+28.7% ROI) profit, but his handicappers do considerably better at 13/80 (16.25%) for 44.8pts (+56%) and we'll focus on these 80 'cappers, who are also...

  • 9/48 (18.75%) for 43.6pts (+90.8%) at Class 4
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 48.2pts (+102.5%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 6/38 (15.8%) for 33.1pts (+87%) within 4 weeks of their last run
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 25.6pts (+88.3%) at 3m1f-3m2f
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 15.2pts (+58.5%) on good ground
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 9.9pts (+82.5%) from LTO winners

In addition to the above, since the start of 2011 in Class 4 chases, males aged 6 to 9 who won a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths LTO 4 to 75 days earlier, went on to win again on 198 of 693 (29% SR) occasions for profits of 122.5pts (+17.9% ROI), with those racing over trips of 2m 4.5f to 3m 2f winning 104 of 347 (30%) for 138.3pts (+39.8%)

And finally, since 2010...Jonjo O'Neill's handicap chasers priced at 12/1 and shorter who were LTO winners in the previous 30 days are 26/118 (22% SR) for 16.63pts (+11.6% ROI) with those racing over 3m to 3m 1.5f winning 7 of 36 (19.4%) for 19.05pts (+52.9%)

...producing...a 1pt win bet on Bronco Billy5/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to grab the 11/4 BOG offered by Bet365 should do so! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th May 2017

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.