Stat of the Day, 25th May 2013
See The Storm was 4th yesterday having been well backed from our 9/4 into 7/4 favouritism at the off. He seemed to have every chance well into the final furlong, but didn't have the kick on that the three horses alongside him showed late in the contest.
We're off over to the Lake District today for a Class 5 Maiden Hurdle, where nine horses will tackle the 2 miles 1.5 furlongs on good ground in the evening sunshine for the....
A bit of a leap (or hurdle!) of faith required today, as we take a look at a runner from John Quinn's yard. John is one of that rare breed of NH trainers that shows an overall profit from backing him blindly irrespective of form, odds, track etc, which gives us an ideal starting point. (for the record, his NH figures are 166 wins from 908 = 18.3% SR, profits of 88.51 pts (+9.75%) at SP and 201.43pts (+22.2%) at betfair SP and 134.4pts profit for E/W backers!)
He has a really good record here at Cartmel and the fact that he has only sent 29 runners here (just 3.2% of his NH output) would suggest he picks his Cartmel races very carefully. He has managed to saddle up seven winners from those 29 runners: a more than satisfactory 24.14% (7/27 over hurdles), whilst his record here in the last two years reads 42213111.
Just the one runner for John here tonight and that's Exning Halt, who is an interesting recruit to hurdling after a 13-race flat career, hence the leap of faith I mentioned earlier.
This one has run pretty well over the flat of late, including a win at Wolverhampton three races ago and based on that form alone, should have more than enough speed on the flat between hurdles to be up with the pace of the race and keep himself out of trouble. We are, of course, guessing about his hurdling ability, but is the truth be known, this isn't a very good race and as long as he gets over each hurdle, his speed between them should enable to take this barring a fall and the 4lb age allowance won't do him any harm either.
So, my play today is a 1pt win bet on Exning Halt at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor (BoyleSports also offer 3/1, whilst it's 11/4 elsewhere). The race is a good 11 hours away yet, so the market could well move quite markedly, so I'd suggest that you...
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