Stat of the Day, 25th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th March 2014

As if by magic, after I'd attempted to reassure new readers of the long-term validity of the SotD service, that we pop up with a nice 9/2 winner in the shape of Cosway Spirit.

We took advantage of a great overnight price that was originally double the Industry SP and the horse duly obliged making relatively light work of what proved to be a slog for many of his rivals. He pulled away from the pack 2 fences from home ans was far enough clear to ease down and still win by nine lengths.

Today's selection has some similarities with Cosway Spirit and a similar result would suit us nicely in the...

3.00 Chepstow:

Yesterday's long-awaited return to form owed itself to this that I wrote in yesterday's piece...

Horses running in a UK handicap chase at odds of 12/1 or under, within 30 days of a win last time out, which was preceded by at least three unplaced runs, went on to record a back-to-back victory on 42 of 170 occasions (24.7% SR) since the start of 2013. This excellent strike rate has also yielded level stakes profits of 65.95pts (+38.8% ROI) in that time.

Also slightly more specifically, since 2009, horses running in UK handicap chases on the back of a win LTO within 30 days on the back of at least 3 unplaced efforts and where their penultimate run was between 15 to 30 days before that recent win have won 32 of 101 races when priced at 12/1 or under and were running within one class and within 1 furlong of their last run.

This 31.7% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 80pts over the five years, a return of 79.2% above stakes invested.

Obviously those figures are slightly better now after Cosway Spirit's win and if we've only had 102 such runners since 2009, it would be a shame to let a second one in two days pass by unnoticed.

So, at the risk of going to the same well too often too quickly, I'm putting up the 13yr old veteran Nozic, who turned back the clock when winning at Plumpton a fortnight ago. That win came after a string of 9 unplaced efforts stretching back to his previous last win at Kempton in February 2013. He ran off a career-low mark of 104 last time out and although he's up 6lbs for that win, he looked strong at the finish and this looks a weaker affair on paper at least.

I suppose if I'm reusing a stat from yesterday, I should at least show you that I've put some effort in, so I'll add this to the mix for today...

...Top weighted runners in winter (November to April) handicap chases from 2011 to today running on ground soft or worse and priced below 6/1 have won 47 of 139 races on the back of a win last time out within 30 days, providing they had no more than three runs in the last 90 days ie an in-form horse that hasn't been over worked. 

47/139 is a strike rate of 33.8% and has been instrumental in generating level stakes profits of some 51.4pts, an ROI of 37%, which is very useful indeed.

The short-priced (7/4 last time I looked) favourite will be the main danger in only his third effort over fences, but he is raised 7lbs for a recent win and our old warrior might just have too much experience for him here today. Just five are set to go to post, so no big prices here, but there's still some value in Nozic's currents odds of 7/2 BOG with Bet365.

I'm not convinced we've seen the last of this old-timer just yet, so I'm going with a 1 pt win bet on Nozic at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, but feel free to...

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th March 2014

  1. jethro

    Hi Chris,
    In regard to your comment above in that you got “paid double the industry SP” on Cosway Spirit yesterday; I took your recommended 9/2 with PP during the night before and got hit with a 15p Rule 4. Did you manage to avoid that somehow? If so, I would love to know your secret to that… Cheers

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      More haste, less speed on my part! It should (as it does now!) relate to the difference between our original advice and the ISP, not the actual payout.
      Our official results will, of course, record a profit of 3.83pts, which still represents terrific value about a 9/4 winner.

  2. jethro

    Sure, excellent result indeed and shame about the non-runner as I don’t think anything would have got near Cosway Spirit judging by the ease of the win! I just wanted to make sure I wasn’t missing out on something there…
    Good luck today with Nozic and have a nice cheroot for us in Cuba! Hope Matt can follow in your footsteps during your absence and enjoy your break…

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