Stat of the Day, 25th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2015

Weather Babe ran well enough, but not good enough at Worcester on Wednesday evening, if you catch my drift. She seemed to be staying on and in contention approaching the second last, but as the battle began to unfold, she was quite one paced and the leading trio left her behind.

Tom Scudamore tried his best to keep her invlved, but we had to settle for fourth place at 4/1, quite a bit longer than my very early advised 11/4 BOG.

The North East is our next port of call for Thursday's...

3.20 Newcastle:

Trainer Julie Camacho doesn't send too many horses to Newcastle, in fact just 110 runners here in the last twelve and a half years! However, since the start of 2008, she has enjoyed some success with her handicappers with 6 winners from 26 (23.1% SR) for 14.6pts (+56.1% ROI) profit from the ones priced at 9/4 to 10/1.

Of those 26 runners, there is a 5/15 (33.33% SR) record at trips of 7/8 furlongs that has produced profits of 21.7pts (+144.8% ROI).

Today's jockey Ian Brennan rides well enough here too, if not exactly blazing a trail to the winning line, but his 9/68 (123.2% SR) record isn't too bad, but does improve to 8/51 (15.7% SR) in handicap contests.

Julie's only runner here (or anywhere for that matter!) today is Wilde Inspiration, who is our pick at 7/2 BOG with Bet365.

Wilde Inspiration was very consistent last season, finishing 21213 in his first five runs of the 2014 campaign and has returned in 2015 running even better. He was beaten into second place by less than 3 lengths at Leicester on his reappearance from a 196 day break.

He then moved on to Haydock, where he landed a £29,000 handicap at today's Class and trip, before finding Chester a little too tight for him in a similar contest next/last time out. He was only beaten by 1.25 lengths into third place and the runner-up from that contest, Jallota has since won the JCB stakes at York.

And since the start of 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds running on the Flat over trips of 5f to a mile who were winners two starts and 16 to 60 days ago, but were beaten into 2nd. 3rd or 4th by less than five lengths last time out, have returned to the winners' enclosure on 171 or 892 (19.2% SR) occasions. These runners have generated a very healthy profit of 242.9pts (+27.2% ROI) to date.

Wilde Inspiration gets to run off the same mark as that narrow defeat at Chester and of those 892 horses above, those running on the same mark as LTO are 73/368 (19.8% SR) for 136.4pts (+37.1% ROI) with those priced in the 9/4 to 12/1 range boasting a record reading 57/274 (20.8% SR) for 130.4pts (+47.6% ROI).

A return to a galloping track, running off the same mark as last time has to make Wilde Inspiration a real contender here in a race that doesn't seem to have too many in-form rivals and I think he's certainly the one to beat here at 7/2 BOG with Bet365.

Once all the other markets open, you'll be able to see what they're offering, by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th June 2015

  1. FGR

    Placed my first Stat Of The Day bet today. Oh, dear! As the song goes – ‘things can only get better!’.
    Is there a recommended tank for SOTD?

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi FGR

      Stat of the Day is proven over almost four years. Judging it on one day – or even a month, in truth – is too short a window. You can see its long term performance here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/

      Of course, you understand that because you’re asking about bank. Good 🙂

      The recommended bank is probably better answered by Chris, but our biggest drawdown in close to four years is 36 points. I’d suggest around 60 point bank to keep confidence should the worst of history recur.

      Hope that adds some colour – try not to expect miracles for this awesome ‘slow burner’. (Again, I’d be pretty sure from your question that you don’t expect miracles!)

      Best,
      Matt

    2. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Paul,

      I “only” find 2 winners from 7 on average, so losing runs are to be expected. Matt’s inference about a 60pt bank is about right, but it’s really a matter of personal preference. I’m a 2% bettor, meaning that I would run from a bank of 50pts and despite the loss today, we’re well in front for June already.

      As for Wilde Inspiration, he just didn’t run well and these things happen. Here at geegeez, we try not to mourn losers too much, in the same way as we don’t go all boomtastic when we do pick winners.

      Chris.

  2. FGR

    Tongue firmly in cheek, Matt!
    60 would see fair given your average price per selection is around about the 100-30 mark according to my calculations – at least to a level stake, that is.
    I would say a bare minimum of 50. 100 if your faint hearted! Lol!

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Ha, good stuff, Paul. Not always easy to tell in written comments. (I should know, most of my ‘jokes’ offend people/are misinterpreted when written on here!!)

      Best,
      Matt

  3. FGR

    I know the feeling! Lol!
    Glad to be on board.
    Never been keen on percentage staking myself (sorry, Chris!), but I suppose it’s horses for courses in that respect.
    I’ve dabbled in variable levels but I find strict 1 pt level stakes suit my strategy best. They’re certainly the best indicator when it comes to guaging the profit potential of a new strategy, but I’m waffling now.
    Anyway, if you can’t cope with losing in the short term you’ve got no chance of winning in the long term. Simple as that. That’s my thought for the day, folks!
    Roll on tomorrow.
    Stay, lucky.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I think you’ve misunderstood me re: staking.
      I stake 2% of the original bank, not 2% of the rolling bank.
      So basically, I start with 50pts and stake 1pt on every selection.
      My past results show this to be level stakes service.

      I don’t like variable stakes either.

  4. Fatboyjim

    For anyone just starting out with SotD I urge you to stick with it.

    If you start in the middle of a losing streak don’t get downhearted, and if you start out in the middle of a winning run don’t get carried away.

    Whatever happens:

    Stick.With.It

    1. Mike1974

      I fully agree with your comments FBJ. Its the long term outcome that matters and the stats for SOTD (if you’ll pardon the pun) prove themselves.
      Probably the worst thing that folk do when they have had 2 or 3 days of winners on the bounce , is to go mad and massively increase stakes thinking that nothing can go wrong. Its guaranteed to decimate ones betting bank.
      If every one sticks to Chris’s staking plan, profits will flow.

      Onwards and upwards.
      Mike

  5. Jan Hart

    SOTD alone has already paid for my lifetime membership, in less than 6 months. Add the Double Dutch, plus all the reports, racecards, forum, etc,etc……what’s not to like?

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