Stat of the Day, 25th June 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 25th June 2012

Back to winning ways yesterday, as Desolait prevailed under an excellent waiting ride from Sam Twiston-Davies at odds of 13/2 (recommended earlier at 7/1 BOG).

Today, I'm using the weather as my guiding light on what is a tricky afternoon's sport. We'll head to the Welsh borders and the…

5.00 Chepstow

When the ground is testing on the flat, it often pays to focus on those with form under such conditions above all other considerations. Today, I'm using that as my mantra for a filly who is bidding to carry more weight and a higher official rating to victory than she ever has before.

Moreover, she's a bit of a perennial placer to boot.

But that's not the whole Caramelita story. This lass has been in fine form, winning her last race over a soggy six furlongs at Folkestone. That track is seriously quaggy when the going is soft, just like Chepstow, and conditions should be perfect for her this afternoon.

Caramelita's record in small field (ten runners or fewer) sprints on soft or heavy going is 13221. And her last three runs were all under such conditions, so were of course 221.

It is her first trip to Chepstow, but as I say, there are similarities with Folkestone when the ground is deep. She's never won off a mark as high as 70 (66 being her previous best); and she's never carried more than 9-04 to victory (ten stone today).

Despite all the negatives, she must be hard to keep out of the frame, so I'll take her win and place at 5/1 BOG with Boylesports. They'll also give you a free bet if you're opening a new account with them today. (Click the banner below for that).

As always, do…

Click here for the latest odds on the 5.00 Chepstow.

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th June 2012

  1. PETER KING

    Hi Matt
    Sorry if you think I was being offensive , but that was never my intention ,
    the truth of the matter is that I hold you in high esteem – that is why I read all your reviews and information ,
    We do have similarities in the way that you study form and follow trends etc ,
    there are no short cuts for me , I have to do it the hard way , and that is why I hold you in high regard – I fully believe in what you are doing ,

    Whether I choose to back the short price selections or not , is not in any way meant to be offensive or argumentative in any way – it is just something I have applied to my betting strategy and I find it pays in the long run – having said that – I would probably be wrong in ignoring your shorter priced selections – I just don’t know because I have no data either way – so I am prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt ,

    But there is one thing for sure Matt – you will always nail the outsider over a good average – and Massin’s Maguire 16/1 Desolait at 8/1 is proof of that
    I will not be backing Caramelita – you have the form and trend spot on – you have observed the weight , but I find the 9lb extra a bit harsh – in comparison to what he has carried previously , a place at best surely – 10/1 + would change my mind .if i am wrong i will be pig sick .

    Regards P-k

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