Stat of the Day, 25th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th July 2015

Nathan Evans picked up a spare ride on Talyani at York on Friday evening and it's probably the easiset ride he's ever had. All he had to do was keep his mount in contention for a mile and then ask him to go and win the race.

Talyani needed little more than a nudge and a shake of the reins and off he ewent quickening readily away from the pack. Nathan hardly laid a glove on him, didn't need to drive him to a finsh and he still got home 2 lengths clear.

Sometimes you'll read that horses win with "something to spare", this one had plenty left to deliver another great result for the SotD faithful, further boosted by the taking of 7/2 about an 11/4 winner who ran like a 7/4 shot!

Saturdays are always tough, but I think we'll get a good run for our money in the...

5.05 Newcastle :

Where you can currently get 11/2 BOG with at least 4 bookies about Camanche Grey, a 4 yr old grey gelding seeking back to back wins after scoring at Thirsk 11 days ago.

That win was a welcome return to form for a horse that had been out of sorts since this time last year when he also put a couple of good back to back performances together, winning at Warwick and then going down a shade unluckily by a neck at Ripon a month later.

Since then he has finished 12th, 9th, 5th, 7th, 11th and 5th before that 1 length win last time out and now runs off a mark just a pound higher than last year's win. It's not unusual for horses to string together a run of poor/unplaced efforts before suddenly bouncing back to form and quite often these horses win again shortly after, so I keep an eye out for these "back to form runners".

Essentially I'm looking for a horse turned back into a flat handicap 4 to 30 days after a win that was preceded by a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts. I only really want to back those racing under pretty similar conditions to that recent win, so I add the following criteria : their OR must be no more than 4lbs higher than the winning run, they maust be running at a trip no more than 1f (up or down) different to last and they must be running at the same class or just one level higher than LTO.

It's not as complex as it looks in print, but horses fitting those criteria (and there's a few ie around 100-120 a season!)  are 108/753 (14.3% SR) for 143.8pts (+19.1% ROI) since 2008 and these can, of course, be broken down into smaller chunks as follows...

  • those priced at 7/2 to 16/1 are 72/567 (12.7% SR) for 182.1pts (+32.1% ROI)
  • those running at the same class as LTO are 70/458 (15.3% SR) for 104.2pts (+22.8% ROI)
  • those running off the same mark as LTO are 17/76 (22.4% SR) for 56.7pts (74.7% ROI)

If you wanted a micro giving around 45 bets a season, you could go with those running at the same class and OR mark 6 to 25 days after their win, as these runners are 41/303 (13.5% SR) for 122.6pts (+40.5% ROI).

Camanche Grey is trained by Ben Haslam, who isn't the best known trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but he ticks along nicely across all three codes and in the last month, he's only had 5 runners on the Flat (turf), but two of them have been winners and he'll hope to make it 3 from 6 today with this, his only runner anywhere.

Ben actually does pretty well with his solo runners, having sent out 298 horses on their own from his Middleham base in North Yorkshire, with 42 (14.1% SR) of them coming home with the prize money, rewarding punters with level stakes profits of 95.3pts at an ROI of 32%, nice work indeed and I suppose it means Ben gets to see most of them race, if he only has 1 runner!

These solo runners can be analysed as follows with today's race in mind...

  • handicappers are 32/212 (15.1% SR) for 85.2pts (+40.2% ROI)
  • 2 to 5 yr olds are 26/203 (12.8% SR) for 72pts (+35.5% ROI)
  • those priced at 2/1 to 14/1 are 28/157 (17.8% SR) for 54.1pts (+34.4% ROI)
  • those running on the flat (turf) are 18/139 (13% SR) for 72.1pts (+51.9% ROI)
  • class 6 runners are 12/94 (12.8% SR) for 39.3pts (+41.8% ROI)
  • those running in the North East are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 33.2pts (+77.1% ROI)

All the above are profitably viable and logical filters and can, of course, be mixed and matched to your heart's content, as long as you're aware that you'll end up with a very small sample size the more combos you make!

There's enough there to satisfy my curiosity and in a race that looks no stronger than the seller Camanche Grey won last time out off this mark, the 11/2 BOG on offer in several places looks a bit generous to me.

To find the very latest odds... here for the betting on the 5.05 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Here is today's racecard.

19 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th July 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Don’t take this the wrong way, but I’m really not sure why you’re telling me this, as an hour later 11/2 is still on offer in 3 places.

      To be perfectly frank, the recent discussions about the odds I quote for SotD and DD are getting tiresome at best and pi**ing me off at worst.

  1. Bubbles180

    Sorry Chris not complaining just saying that I’m on your selection didn’t mean it to come across that way just happy to be on your team backing all these winners you give us

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No worries, I’ve clearly misunderstood your point.

      But I still don’t get why you didn’t take the 11/2 elsewhere and I’m still a tad irritated by the goings on this week.

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          NO NEED TO SHOUT! 😀

          All joking apart and not knowing your position, but Ladbrokes take Paypal and others might. And have you examined Skrill as a funding vehicle?

  2. chrish2

    Here’s something on a positive note. I haven’t been using this site as often as I should due to being lazy and not making enough time for it during my lunch time, whilst at work. So on Wednesday I started to follow Stat of the Day and Double Dutch, with resounding results as the Satt of the Day has won 3 times on the trot. However, I also combined SOTD with DD betting on 8 doubles and 4 trebles, which has also been profitable and nearly very lucrative, being so close to bagging the treble.

    Keep them coming, Chris.

    1. Bubbles180

      hi chrish2 if you had done SOTD singles, SOTD & DD Doubles and trebles total 13 pts per day for july to date you would be up +161.40 pt for information

    1. Blokeshead

      I use Hotspot Shield (HS) too.

      When I was in Spain earlier this year it allowed me to use William Hill (who I know ban Spanish-based users).

      In Greece last summer – even though it was incredibly slow down there, probably for local reasons – HS also allowed me access to Betfair and Bet365 (the rabble who’ve since closed me down wherever I am!)

      Good luck with it.

  3. vhlmurphy

    Ok thanks ill give them a try as Im off to Greece in September just before my annual jolly to Paris. I hope it works as ive been limited to Boylesports which for some reason still seems to work when im in France.
    Regards Vince

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