Stat of the Day, 25th July 2015
Nathan Evans picked up a spare ride on Talyani at York on Friday evening and it's probably the easiset ride he's ever had. All he had to do was keep his mount in contention for a mile and then ask him to go and win the race.
Talyani needed little more than a nudge and a shake of the reins and off he ewent quickening readily away from the pack. Nathan hardly laid a glove on him, didn't need to drive him to a finsh and he still got home 2 lengths clear.
Sometimes you'll read that horses win with "something to spare", this one had plenty left to deliver another great result for the SotD faithful, further boosted by the taking of 7/2 about an 11/4 winner who ran like a 7/4 shot!
Saturdays are always tough, but I think we'll get a good run for our money in the...
Where you can currently get 11/2 BOG with at least 4 bookies about Camanche Grey, a 4 yr old grey gelding seeking back to back wins after scoring at Thirsk 11 days ago.
That win was a welcome return to form for a horse that had been out of sorts since this time last year when he also put a couple of good back to back performances together, winning at Warwick and then going down a shade unluckily by a neck at Ripon a month later.
Since then he has finished 12th, 9th, 5th, 7th, 11th and 5th before that 1 length win last time out and now runs off a mark just a pound higher than last year's win. It's not unusual for horses to string together a run of poor/unplaced efforts before suddenly bouncing back to form and quite often these horses win again shortly after, so I keep an eye out for these "back to form runners".
Essentially I'm looking for a horse turned back into a flat handicap 4 to 30 days after a win that was preceded by a run of 3 or more consecutive unplaced efforts. I only really want to back those racing under pretty similar conditions to that recent win, so I add the following criteria : their OR must be no more than 4lbs higher than the winning run, they maust be running at a trip no more than 1f (up or down) different to last and they must be running at the same class or just one level higher than LTO.
It's not as complex as it looks in print, but horses fitting those criteria (and there's a few ie around 100-120 a season!) are 108/753 (14.3% SR) for 143.8pts (+19.1% ROI) since 2008 and these can, of course, be broken down into smaller chunks as follows...
- those priced at 7/2 to 16/1 are 72/567 (12.7% SR) for 182.1pts (+32.1% ROI)
- those running at the same class as LTO are 70/458 (15.3% SR) for 104.2pts (+22.8% ROI)
- those running off the same mark as LTO are 17/76 (22.4% SR) for 56.7pts (74.7% ROI)
If you wanted a micro giving around 45 bets a season, you could go with those running at the same class and OR mark 6 to 25 days after their win, as these runners are 41/303 (13.5% SR) for 122.6pts (+40.5% ROI).
Camanche Grey is trained by Ben Haslam, who isn't the best known trainer out there, nor does he have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but he ticks along nicely across all three codes and in the last month, he's only had 5 runners on the Flat (turf), but two of them have been winners and he'll hope to make it 3 from 6 today with this, his only runner anywhere.
Ben actually does pretty well with his solo runners, having sent out 298 horses on their own from his Middleham base in North Yorkshire, with 42 (14.1% SR) of them coming home with the prize money, rewarding punters with level stakes profits of 95.3pts at an ROI of 32%, nice work indeed and I suppose it means Ben gets to see most of them race, if he only has 1 runner!
These solo runners can be analysed as follows with today's race in mind...
- handicappers are 32/212 (15.1% SR) for 85.2pts (+40.2% ROI)
- 2 to 5 yr olds are 26/203 (12.8% SR) for 72pts (+35.5% ROI)
- those priced at 2/1 to 14/1 are 28/157 (17.8% SR) for 54.1pts (+34.4% ROI)
- those running on the flat (turf) are 18/139 (13% SR) for 72.1pts (+51.9% ROI)
- class 6 runners are 12/94 (12.8% SR) for 39.3pts (+41.8% ROI)
- those running in the North East are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 33.2pts (+77.1% ROI)
All the above are profitably viable and logical filters and can, of course, be mixed and matched to your heart's content, as long as you're aware that you'll end up with a very small sample size the more combos you make!
There's enough there to satisfy my curiosity and in a race that looks no stronger than the seller Camanche Grey won last time out off this mark, the 11/2 BOG on offer in several places looks a bit generous to me.
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