Stat of the Day, 25th January 2018

Wednesday's Result :

6.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 7/2 Slowly into stride, towards rear, stayed on inside final furlong, never nearer...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.35 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ A/W Handicap Hurdle over 3m1.5f on Soft ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding has made the frame in four of his last five starts, winning twice including last time out seven days ago over 3 miles on soft ground at this grade. Despite easing down on the run-in, he was still home a good 13 lengths ahead of his nearest rival to whom he was conceding 25lbs.

He comes from a yard in great form, as Henry Daly's runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts over the past fortnight with 2 winners and a placer from five over the last week. Jockey Richard Johnson is also in good nick, having ridden 9 winners from 40 in the fortnight.

Meanwhile, here at Warwick, Henry Daly is 15/112 (13.4% SR) for 14.04pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2009, whilst Richard Johnson's record over the last 6yrs here stands at 38/170 (22.4% SR) for 0.19pts (+0.11% ROI), showing that his success seems to attract punters' money.

On top of all the above, Mr Daly's handicap hurdlers are 46/291 (15.8% SR) for 96.2pts (+33.1% ROI) since 2012, including...

  • at Class 3 : 12/86 (14%) for 32.9pts (+38.3%)
  • 6-25 days since last run : 18/77 (23.4%) for 30pts (+39%)
  • with Richard Johnson : 12/67 (17.9%) for 22.6pts (+33.8%)
  • and in January : 8/29 (27.6%) for 18.6pts (+64.1%)

...whilst over the last 2 years alone, his LTO winners are 12/45 (26.7% SR) for 13.14pts (+29.2% ROI)...

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG which was available from half a dozen outlets at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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