Stat of the Day, 25th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.10 Kempton : Biff Johnson @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.20 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comragh @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare makes both her yard and handicap debut today, having last been seen 106 days ago winning by 8 lengths at Ayr, where she was the main beneficiary of a fall by the leader at the last hurdle. She has since switched yards and now runs for Jeremy Scott, who from a fairly small sample size, tends to do well here at Huntingdon.

Since the start of 2011, his 22 runners here have produced 7 winners (31.8% SR) and a healthy 7.13pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits. Once has to assume it's the 400+ mile round trip from Somerset that keeps him away, because closer inspection shows that of those 22 runners he has sent here...

  • today's jockey Nick Scholfield has ridden 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for 6.26pts (+31.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 1.65pts (+11.8% ROI), these tend to get backed!
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.91pts (+37.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 7.33pts (+104.7% ROI)
  • females are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 6.79pts (+113.1% ROI)
  • and in female only races, they are 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 2.04pts (+68% ROI)

Nick Scholfield / Jeremy Scott/ Female Hurdlers / 5-1 and shorter are 4 from 4 for 8.8pts (+220% ROI) of which 6 yr olds are 3 from 3 for 8.46pts (+282.2% ROI).

Comrah makes her handicap bow today and last year was a good one for Jermey Scott's handicap debutants with 4 winners from 10 for profits of 18.67pts (+186.7% ROI), of which class 4 runners were 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+227.5% ROI), females were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 19.1pts (+318.1% ROI) and Nick Scholfield rode 2 winners from 3 (66.7% SR) for 6.33pts (+211% ROI)

None of the 10 were priced between 11/2 and 12/1, they fell either side of that gap, but those at 5/1 or shorter won 3 from 3 for 9.47pts (+315.7% ROI)

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Comragh at 9/2 BOG, a price currently (8.255pm) available with more than half a dozen different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th February 2016

  1. Matt Bisogno Post author

    I backed Comragh independently of this selection, and it ran totally as if something amiss.

    Punted from 5/1 into 9/4 favourite, and nominated here at 9/2, it was a great value shout. As the old saying goes, you can’t eat value and, right now, we’re having to rely on the reserves a tad.

    Personally, I’m always happy with 9/2 about 9/4 shots but, obviously, happier when they go on and win!

    Matt

  2. bigvern63

    Thanks for the info., makes sense of such a poor run. Still, Double Dutch just landed the spoils and as you say, keep finding the value and you will come out on top in the end.

    Cheers, Chris

    P.S. Little aside – wife calls me this morning to say her and my 8 yr old son Harry want a bet on a horse they heard mentioned on the radio….Douvan!!! Had to explain it was on paper the biggest certainty at next month’s Festival and as my lad was apparently seriously excited, going to have to stand him odds of 4-1 so he gets a decent return!!

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