Wednesday's Result :
6.20 Stratford : Rossetti @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Hampered 1st, tracked leaders, led approaching soon hung left and mistake last, ran on well to win by almost 4 lengths)
Thursday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG
Over the last two years, trainer Garry Moss has quietly gone about his business, but has been one of the unsung standout performers on the Flat from a fairly small string of horses.
The past 24 months have seen his runners win 18 of their 74 (24.3% SR) races for level stakes profits of 77.4pts (+104.5% ROI) and not only is Ginger Jack his only chance of further success today, the profile if this race seems to fit Garry's MO very well indeed, as those 74 runners are...
- 17/67 (25.4%) for 78.4pts (+117%) turned out within 60 days of their last run
- 17/63 (27%) for 68pts (+107.9%) in handicaps
- 16/60 (26.7%) for 73pts (+121.6%) since the start of the 2015 season
- 14/54 (25.9%) for 80.8pts (+149.6%) from his male runners
- 12/48 (25%) for 77.9pts (+162.2%) over trips of 7 to 8.5 furlongs
- 13/33 (39.4%) for 33.6pts (+101.8%) priced at 5/4 to 13/2
- 6/22 (27.3%) for 38.7pts (+175.7%) on good to firm ground
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 5.64pts (+47%) here at Musselburgh
- and 2/8 (25%) for 2.7pts (+33.7%) ridden by today's jockey, Jason Hart.
All of the above data would convince me to place a bet on Garry's runner in this contest, but even more so when I see that it's Ginger Jack representing the yard, because he also seems very well suited by the task ahead of him, based upon past results.
To date, this 9 yr old gelding has won 11 times from 63 Flat /AW contests, with his decent 17.5% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of just 0.85pts at an ROI of 1.35%.
Now I'm aware that this level of return isn't satisfactory, but a good win ratio allied to blind profitability is always the minimum requirement before I assess the suitability of the contest for my chosen runner.
And when we look closer at his 63 races in respect of today's outing, we find that those runs include the following of note...
- 11/50 (22%) for 13.9pts (+27.8%) if fields of 5-15 runners
- 9/40 (22.5%) for 14.3pts (+35.7%) over this 1m trip
- 7/38 (18.4%) for 2.46pts (+6.47%) after a break of 6-30 days
- 10/25 (40%) for 26.75pts (+107%) when priced at 13/2 and shorter
- 6/21 (28.6%) for 7.3pts (+34.6%) on good to firm ground
- 2/8 (25%) for 3.73pts (+46.6%) since moving to Garry Moss
- 1/1 here at Musselburgh, a course and distance win
...leading me to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jack at 7/2 BOG, from any of the ten or so firms all quoting that price at 7.25pm, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...
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