Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Brighton : Pour La Victoire @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Dwelt towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to lead towards finish)

Our next runner goes in Wednesday's...

6.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Target @ 6/1 BOG

A 11-runner, Class 3,  1m A/W Handicap (4yo+) on polytrack worth £7246 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a runner up last time out when only beaten by a length in a similar contest over course and distance 32 days ago. Since then the 4th placed horse (1.25 lengths back) Poet's Society has turned back out here and won.

Hope fully our boy can do the same as he's admittedly on a run that reads 0 win from 11 over the last 13 months, but with 3 top three finishes in his last five starts, a victory today would be a massive surprise, nor would it be out of turn, especially as he is 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) on the All-Weather, including...

  • 7 from 21 (33.3%) going left handed
  • 6 from 20 (30%) on Polytrack
  • 5 from 17 (29.4%) over a mile
  • 6 from 14 (42.9%) here at Lingfield
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) over course and distance

His trainer Michael Wigham's own stats here at Lingfield are obviously aided by the above data, but he doesn't entirely rely on the one horse here, as since 2009, his Lingfield A/W handicappers are 18/113 (15.9% SR) for 58.6pts (+51.8% ROI), which include..

  • over 1m to 1m2f : 13/61 (21.3%) for 74.95pts (+122.9%)
  • at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/32 (21.9%) for 87.96pts (+274.9%)
  • and over 1m to 1m2f at Classes 2 to 4 : 7/20 (35%) for 99.96pts (+499.8%)

Now the above profit and respective ROI figures are a little skewed by a 33/1 winner that paid 80.3pts at betfair SP, but even if you took 47pts off the bottom line, the numbers still stack up well.

And finally, going back the run of 11 losses in a row for this horse, this can be offputting for many, but it's worth noting that since 2014, Michael Wigham's handicappers running off a mark lower than their last winning level which was more than 5 nut less than 15 races ago are 7/43 (16.3% SR) for 10.96pts at an ROI of 25.5%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Target @ 6/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright, Betfair, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.30pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 25th April 2018

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.