Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

Hmmmm, for the second day running, our horse finished third, wasn't beaten by far and I wasn't 100% happy with the jockey's performance. For recent recruits to the SotD cause, I must stress this isn't me talking through my pocket : it's very rare that I'm critical of the lads who risk their necks every day.

Son of Suzie proved he gets 3m3f despite being outpaced in the mid-section of the race and was staying on stoutly from the penultimate hurdle, quickly making ground on the leading pair. The leaders were clearly tiring and wandering around and for some inexplicable reason, our jockey decided to steer to the right and straight into trafiic.

Momentum was lost as he was snatched up and switched back out towards the rail, where he should have gone initially. Did it cost us the race? Possibly. We'll never know, but he was beaten by less than 2 lengths, so draw your own conclusions.

Saturday is my last pick of the week and I've selected one in the...

7.30 Doncaster:

Where Luca Cumani drops Ajman Bridge down in class for the Class 3, 10.5f handicap as his reintroduction to racing after a break of some eight months since he was last seen at York. And those, like me, who want to back him can do so at 7/2 BOG with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Signor Cumani has an excellent record here on Town Moor and since 2008, 29 of his 136 runners (21.3% SR) have been winning, generating level stakes profits of 27.8pts at an ROI of 20.4%. These figures can be broken down as follows (in order of sample size)...

Running over 7 to 14.5 furlongs : 26/129 = 23% SR for 37.8pts (+30% ROI)
Priced at 6/4 to 10/1 : 26/102 = 25.5% SR for 56.3pts (+55.2% ROI)
Handicap runners : 21/88 = 23.8% SR for 33.5pts (+38% ROI)
Class 3/4 runners : 19/60 = 31.7% SR for 42.2pts (+70.4% ROI).

So, as you can see, plenty of profitable Cumani angles here at Donny. You can mix and match to your heart's content, but one simple way is to put them all together to see that in 7f to 14.5f handicaps at 10/1 or shorter, the record reads 21/73 (28.8% SR) for 48.5pts (+66.4% ROI) and at Class 3/4 level 17/40 (42.5% SR) for 53.9pts (+134.8% ROI).

Luca is also very good at dropping horses down in grade to eke more out of them and his class droppers are 34/126 (27% SR) for 94.8pts (+75.3% ROI) since the start of 2010.

Those dropping down to today's Class 3 level are 9/34 (26.5% SR) for 33.1 pts (+97.3% ROI), whilst those priced at 7/1 or shorter are 30/89 (33.7% SR) for 62.6pts (+70.3% ROI).

When I was collating the figures about class droppers, something came to me. It might already be out there, so forgive me if this isn't new to you, but with Ajman Bridge's 8 month layoff in mind, I began to wonder if certain trainers did well with horses dropping in class off the back of a long break. That's now my home work for Sunday!

But I can tell you that when Luca Cumani has dropped a horse in class after a break of over 6 months, 7 of 15 (46.7% SR) have won and have also made 46.3pts profit at an ROI of 308.4%. Hmmm, interesting!

Regular readers will also know that I do like to keep an eye on certain stallions and their progeny and Ajman Bridge is by Dubawi, one of my Flat/All-Weather staples. I like to find trainers or stallions I can back blindly and make money without taxing the brain too much: the old maximum reward for minimum effort scenario.

Anyway I digress, back to Dubawi... 562 /3290 are the figures from his offspring to date, an impressive 17.1% strike rate yielding 544.6pts profit at a ROI of 16.6%. That's basically £1 profit from every £6 wagered, just for looking for the name Dubawi! Here at Doncaster, his "babies" are 16/94 (17% SR) for 24.4pts (+26% ROI) whilst on the Flat in general they are 340/2161 (15.7% SR) for 430.2pts (+19.9% ROI)

With such a massive sample size, you could spend hours (trust me! 😀 ) looking at/for angles, so I'll leave you with a simple one...

...back all Dubawi offspring priced at 2/1 to 12/1 in Flat handicaps over trips of 1 to 2 miles. This has produced 94 winners from 498 runners, an 18.9% strike rate producing 178.6pts (+35.9% ROI) profits.

Betfair Sportsbook are currently best priced with 7/2 BOG about Ajman Bridge with Ladbrokes also offering the same, but they don't go BOG until 9.00am. You can see if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 25th April 2015

  1. Chris Jones

    Hi Matt,

    My view (for what its worth) is that the jockey isn’t to blame. From what I saw of the race last night, when Allthegear No Idea baulked at the last fence he went left and there was a brief gap for Son of Suzie to run into. Allthegear then pulled back across to the right and blocked his run off to the point that Allthegear actually bumped into Jaunty Journey. The commentator saw it differently and seemed to think that Jaunty Journey had done the bumping. Either way, I think Son of Suzie is well worth another look in the future. I watched the race again this morning from the head on camera and haven’t changed my view!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      My point was that he didn’t need to try to switch inside to get through what you called a brief gap.
      Hindsight is, of course, a wonderful thing, but there was far more space to the jockey’s left than to his right.


  2. Tuckers Luck

    with better rides and a bit more luck this week could look a lot different, nothing wrong with selections just a tad unfortunate imo, onwards and upwards

  3. jethro

    What makes things even more frustrating for me, is that I placed my bet on Ahman Bridge with Coral, due to their “money back as a free bet if your horse comes second, beaten by a head or less”.
    My thoughts as we just got pipped on the line therefore were, “not so bad, at least I get my money back!”.
    However, I was gob-smacked to then see the result come up with an official margin declared as being called a neck! Hmmmm…
    I’ve watched a few freeze frames of them crossing the line since; and I’m still wondering how the powers that be make their official margin decisions sometimes…
    Just my sour grapes I suppose – perhaps I should have gone to spec savers! Ha ha…

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