Stat of the Day, 24th September 2015
I was right about opposing the odds on favourite at Kempton on Wednesday evening and I was right that 9/2 represented good value about Langlauf, who got out well and ran a really good 6 furlongs.
The race, unfortunately, was a 7f affair and as our girl was caught just inside the final 200 yards, she had no answers and tamely shuffled back to fourth place, beaten by just over four lengths.
Back to the turf on Thursday and a trip to Yorkshire and the home of some of my favourite confectionery for the...
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This is a Class 4, one mile, maiden for two year olds, where my pennies have gone on the 5/1 BOG Amber Mustique, a filly trained by Richard Fahey and she not only gets a 5lb allowance for being a "lady", but will also benefit from the 3lbs claimed by jockey Jack Garrity, who hankering after the jockeys' title guarantees us 100% effort. 110% would be nice, but only footballers can break the rules of statistics.
Richard Fahey has been firing in the winners of late and has already recorded his fastest 200 runners in a season and if you'd backed every one of his runners in the last two months, you'd have had 82 winners from 478 bets (17.2% SR) and a £20 punt on each of them would have netted you a cool £2996 at an ROI of 31.4%. Nice work for those on all on all of them.
Richard won this race last year and I'm sure he'd like to maintain his impressive record at this track with another win here to add to the tally of 61 winners from 306 Pontefract runners (19.9% SR) over the last seven seasons that have generated level stakes profits of 163.5pts at an ROI of 53.4%.
With today's race in mind, here's how those 306 runners stack up...
- 55/236 (23.3% SR) for 109.3pts (+46.3% ROI) at odds of 6/4 to 11/1 (you never know!)
- 21/124 (16.9% SR) for 73.6pts (+59.3% ROI) with female runners
- 23/102 (22.6% SR) for 130.4pts (+127.8% ROI) in non-hcp races
- 19/80 (23.8% SR) for 132.2pts (+165.3% ROI) with 2 yr olds
- 18/79 (22.8% SR) for 53.9pts (+68.2% ROI) at Class 4
- 18/77 (23.4% SR) for 125.2pts (+162.5% ROI) in maidens
- 13/56 (23.2% SR) for 20pts (+35.7% ROI) over trips of a mile
- 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 15.7pts (+174.1% ROI) when ridden by Jack Garrity, a man with a bright future.
Amber Mustique was fourth at Wolverhampton last time out, but acquitted herself on her only previous run on turf, when a decent second at Leicester where she was only beaten by two lengths, doing all her best work late on and she stayed on strongly.
The way she finished that day and her breeding (by Sakhee) would both point to a mile being more suitable for her needs and if she's not given too much to do late on, could very well break her duck here.
I took 5/1 BOG from Bet365, but there are four or five others offering the same price. For more details...
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