Stat of the Day, 24th September 2013
Roman Romance didn't run badly yesterday, but she didn't win, nor was she placed, I'm afraid. In fact, the only thing I seem to have got right yesterday was to advise a bet at 13/2 E/W, as her SP was just 9/2. (PS she finished 4th)
At the time I wrote yesterday's piece she was 4th favourite and I confidently informed you all that..."she holds an edge over two of the three horses ahead of her in the market, whilst the favourite Teocht has been disappointing and is already beginning to look overexposed at this level"
Well, as the Law of Sod tends to dictate, Teocht stayed on the best to win with the other two horses I'd dismissed filling the places! That said, our mount could very well have got placed but for running flat for a while mid-race, when she dropped back to sixth. By the time her jockey got her going again, she'd plenty to do, but only missed the places by a head in a tight battle for 3rd spot. (3rd to 6th were separated by hd, nk and sh!)
We're off to Devon today for a crack at the...
Where Charlie Mann's sole runner of the day Western King aims for back to back course and distance victories over a lengthy 26.5 furlongs. As well having winning here last time out, Western King is of interest, as Charlie Mann doesn't send many runners on the near-300 mile round trip from his Upper Lambourn base to Newton Abbot.
In fact, in the last 10 yrs, he's only has 66 runners here in total, but without breaking any records has achieved a respectable 18.2% strike rate via 12 winners. Of course, I want to drill into these numbers a bit further to aid the selection process!
In the 2011/13 period he has had four winners from fifteen (26.7% SR) for profits of 10.56pts, a return of 70.4%, which fits the SotD bill rather nicely and from the original 12/66 stat, the figure over the 10yr period in chase events is five from twenty-eight (17.9% SR), with the three-yearly figure being three from seven (42.9%) for 16.9pts (+241.3%) profit.
So, any runner of his interests me here, especially chasers and Western King comes here (as mentioned above) with the benefit of having run and won over course and distance on the first of this month.
Newton Abbot is one of those tracks where a previous C&D win tips the balance in favour of returning horses, as in the 2011/13 timeframe, there has been 17 winners from 60 horses (28.33% SR) who have a CD next to the name and also won last time out. Those 17 winners have produced 34.2pts profit, or 57% of stakes invested. This year alone the figures are 8 winners from 22 (36.4%) for 16.1pts (+73.2%) profit.
If those figures weren't impressive enough, then if we apply a simple odds filter (similar to the ranges SotD operates in), we can rule out horses below 9/4 and above 12/1 and this leaves us a return of 8 winners from 35 (22.9%) in 2011/13 for 37.8pts profit (+107.9% ROI) and the figures for 2013 are 3/13 (23.1%) for 14.7pts (+112.9%)
The odds filter doesn't skew the strike rates dramatically in our favour, in fact it lowers the strike rate, eliminating any fear of backfitting. Yet the ROI increases and that is the more relevant figure of the two.
I should also add that Noel Fehily is on board today, a jockey in top form. Noel has won 35 of his last 100 races for level stakes profits at SP of 91.37pts, his record at BOG prices must be at least another 20% on top of that. He has actually won 8 of his 18 rides here at Newton Abbot this year, a strike rate of 44.4% yielding a profit of 46.2pts, a return of almost 257% of stakes. from those figures, he is 4/8 for 18.63pts over the chase course.
We know the stats back up the selection, we know the horse comes here in good nick, so why is Western King not a short priced favourite? Well, this is a tougher contest, he's up 8lbs for an easy win LTO and probably won't be allowed to make all. That said, there are plenty of question marks about all the runners here today and I think a 1pt win bet on Western King at 5/1 BOG with Stan James represents good value today.
If you don't have a Stan James account (you really should and you can use this nifty bit of kit to get one), then you can see what your bookie is offering when you...
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