Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.25 Cheltenham : Young Dillon @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 5/1 (Held up, in mid-division, in touch form 4th, not fluent 6th, ridden and hanging left after 3 out, hampered on bend after next, stayed on same pace flat)

Monday's pick goes in the...

5.30 Redcar :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding wasn't beaten by far (a length, a head and a nose) into 4th place of a big field (16 ran) handicap at Thirsk last time out almost 6 weeks ago. His performance looks even better after the event, when you realise that from stall 1, he was clearly on the "wrong side" as the rest of the first five home came from stalls 10, 16, 13 and 9.

The runner-up has since won in another big filed and that was over today's course and distance, so if the form holds out, we could be well in.

Prior to that defeat at Thirsk, Tricky Dicky's form was 1212, all over this 6f trip and to date, he is 3/10 (30% SR) for 58.93pts (+589.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps, from which the following are relevant today...

  • over 6f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 61.9pts (+884.7%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/6 (50%) for 62.9pts (+1048.8%)
  • at 4/1 and shorter : 2/5 (40%) for 2.13pts (+42.6%)
  • in fields of 9-13 runners : 3/3 (100%) for 65.93pts (+2197.7%)
  • on a straight track : 2/4 (50%) for 60.12pts (+1503%)
  • here at Redcar : 1/1 (100%) for 60.8pts (+608%)

That Redcar win above was over this track and trip and with the 33/1 SP paying out 60.8pts profit at Betfair SP, that clearly skews the P/L and ROI of the above stats somewhat, but doesn't detract from their validity.

A further level of reassurance can be taken from the fact that he's by Holy Roman Emperor, whose 3 yr olds are 82/596 (13.8% SR) for 279.6pts (+46.9% ROI) in UK Flat races, of which...

  • over 6f : 22/135 (16.3%) for 121.2pts (+89.7%)
  • this year : 19/102 (18.6%) for 141pts (+138.2%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/84 (16.7%) for 49.8pts (+59.3%)
  • and here at Redcar : 2/9 (22.2%) for 62.2pts (+690.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tricky Dicky at 7/2 BOG, a price widely available at 9.55pm on Sunday, although I'd advise using Bet365 where possible, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.30 Redcar.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th October 2016

  1. jethro

    Great work as always Chris!
    Bet365 has put a 10p Rule 4 on me for some reason? All the non-runners were 16/1 or higher so I can’t work that one out? Have you had the same deduction?

      1. jethro

        Yes I also backed it with Paddy Power who took 5p…
        Something strange has occurred in regard to the price of Rock Canyon at the time it was withdrawn? The full result on Sporting Life shows it was at odds of 8/1 which would be a 10p deduction. However on Oddschecker – the horse was at 16/1 at time of withdrawal with Bet365, Skybet and others?
        I’ll be delighted to hear how you get on when you ask about it…
        Cheers

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          The Bet365 advisor insisted the 10p was the right deduction, but then admitted to the horse being 16/1. I then quoted him Bet365’s webpage with the R4 deductions and he went away to speak to someone.

          The out come was…“The settlement team have confirmed that settlement appears to be incorrect and as such I am now forwarding on your bet reference for review, once this review has been complete the settlement will be amended and we can get one of our advisors to inform you of this change….”

          1. jethro

            You might have worked the oracle there Chris! My bet returns have at this moment been withdrawn from my Bet365 account and my initial bet is now once again showing in my account as an unsettled bet. I assume the correction is about to be made.!! Yippee…
            Gosh you don’t half provide us with a full service here mate. Not only do you tip the winners out to us, you fix any problems if they underpay us when we win!! Ha ha… What more could we ask for and good for you!!!

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