Stat of the Day, 24th November 2017

Thursday's Result :

1.25 Wincanton : Cucklington @ 11/4 BOG WON at 13/8 Led from 2nd, headed 16th, led again before 4 out, clear before 2 out, held on towards finish to win by a length and a half.

Next up is Friday's...

6.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo A/W Handicap (Nursery) over a mile on Tapeta worth £3,558 to the winner.

A fairly simple, no-frills, back to basics approach today with a 2yr old (obviously!) colt, who seems to like the tapeta well enough, having made the frame on both previous runs on the surface. He wears a visor for the first time today and is effectively a pound well in ahead of his future mark.

I think he has an excellent chance here today, but the reason he caught my eye from a numerical perspective is because...

...trainer Keith Dalgleish + males priced at Evens to 9/1 + A/W handicaps + October to February inclusive = 46/235 (19.% SR) for 38.25pts (+16.3% ROI) since 2011, and of particular relevance today amongst those 235 winter 'cappers...

  • over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs : 28/146 (19.2%) for 71.15pts (+48.7%)
  • at Class 5 : 19/90 (21.1%) for 18.5pts (+20.5%)
  • those beaten by just 1 to 3 lengths LTO are 15/58 (25.9%) for 19.96pts (+34.4%)
  • wearing the applied headgear for the first time : 7/28 (25%) for 13.3pts (+47.6%)
  • in a visor : 5/23 (21.7%) for 7.6pts (+33%)
  • and in a visor less than 3 times : 5/12 (41.7%) for 18.6pts (+155%)

He's drawn 5 of 6 and is likely to travel down the field waiting for a late run, based on past performances and the Geegeez racecard pace and draw information suggests a high draw coming from off the pace is the best place to be.

...and that's the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Handsome Bob @ 3/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Thursday. I've actually managed to grab some 100/30 BOG from SkyBet, so I'd recommend you try that too, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th November 2017

  1. Paul Kendall

    Hello Chris,
    I happily pay a subscription for a set of the finest tools which, if properly used, can chisel out the likeliest winner from the card in any race on the day. The only problem I have is that I’m a lumberjack with Thomas Chippendale’s tool chest!
    Even after Matt’s video box-set of brilliant instructions on their use and although I feel more confident about it, I still like to hear a solidly reasoned proposition for a bet from someone else with credentials.
    You can understand then Chris how much I and I suspect many others are so happy for you to do the hard work.
    Long may you, Matt, Steve and unsung others feel it worthwhile to carry on with what you’re doing for us, win or lose.
    Thank you.
    Paul

  2. whodbeme

    If a punter were to have a personal connection with every trainer, jockey and owner of every horse that raced and was privy to the intentions of a particular runner on that day, this game would be a breeze! Chris, Matt and the rest of the crew at Geegeez are as near as we are likely to get to fathoming out such intentions of a runner without having the luxury of being privy to the ‘inside info’.

    This game can seem like a lottery at times (most times!) but with the passion, knowledge, and willingness to share valuable insights into pointing us in the right direction, Geegeez is a flaming Godsend!

    Keep up the good work!

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