Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012
A bit of a head scratcher yesterday, I nominated Saunta at 17/2, which I thought was a decent enough price. The rest of the market disagreed and she was sent off at 14/1. She pulled very hard early on and didn't look like a 14/1 chance, despite not really troubling the leading trio. She seemed to be staying on again at the finish, but hadn't done enough mid-race to grab a place in the front three. She eventually finished 4th, just 3/4 length away from netting us a nice place return.
I'm staying on the A/W again today and heading towards East Grinstead for a Class 4, 5 furlong Handicap where nine runners are currently set to contest the...
When you begin to compile a list of notable trainers at the Lingfield venue, I'd wager that Tim Pitt wouldn't be very up that list, if he was on it at all! Yet, if we look at this record here this year, we can see that he has saddled three winners from eleven for a level stakes profit of 12.75pts with a further four horses making the frame.
All three winners came in handicap events, where he is 3/5 for 18.75pts with a record of 12121.
Today's selection is Tim's only runner: Sonko.
Sonko is developing into a bit of a specialist at 5 furlongs, where she is 5/18 with 6 further place finishes for a win profit of over 13pts, but even more relative to today's contest, she is 112121 over 5 furlongs on All-Weather for a profit of over 21pts and she's 2/2 over today's course & distance.
I don't normally pick favourites for SotD, but I think there's enough value in the price to justify this pick today and if she grabs the lead early on, she'll be very hard to catch and/or pass. She has shown in the past a liking for front running on these surfaces and I'd expect a similar tactic today.
She is up in class today, which means she won't be a really short-priced favourite, so I'm happy to take the 7/2 BOG widely available ( at 10.20am) for a straight 1pt win bet on Sonko. I'm using bet365 today, but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...