Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day 24/11/12

Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

A bit of a head scratcher yesterday, I nominated Saunta at 17/2, which I thought was a decent enough price. The rest of the market disagreed and she was sent off at 14/1. She pulled very hard early on and didn't look like a 14/1 chance, despite not really troubling the leading trio. She seemed to be staying on again at the finish, but hadn't done enough mid-race to grab a place in the front three. She eventually finished 4th, just 3/4 length away from netting us a nice place return.

I'm staying on the A/W again today and heading towards East Grinstead for a Class 4, 5 furlong Handicap where nine runners are currently set to contest the...

2.25 Lingfield

When you begin to compile a list of notable trainers at the Lingfield venue, I'd wager that Tim Pitt wouldn't be very up that list, if he was on it at all! Yet, if we look at this record here this year, we can see that he has saddled three winners from eleven for a level stakes profit of 12.75pts with a further four horses making the frame.

All three winners came in handicap events, where he is 3/5 for 18.75pts with a record of 12121.

Today's selection is Tim's only runner: Sonko.

Sonko is developing into a bit of a specialist at 5 furlongs, where she is 5/18 with 6 further place finishes for a win profit of over 13pts, but even more relative to today's contest, she is 112121 over 5 furlongs on All-Weather for a profit of over 21pts and she's 2/2 over today's course & distance.

I don't normally pick favourites for SotD, but I think there's enough value in the price to justify this pick today and if she grabs the lead early on, she'll be very hard to catch and/or pass. She has shown in the past a liking for front running on these surfaces and I'd expect a similar tactic today.

She is up in class today, which means she won't be a really short-priced favourite, so I'm happy to take the 7/2 BOG widely available ( at 10.20am) for a straight 1pt win bet on Sonko. I'm using bet365 today, but if you prefer to use a different bookmaker, you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

22 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th November 2012

  1. Mike

    Well Chris, I don’t always go with your selections, or Matt, but boy! am I glad I went with you today. Well done! That was the best £25.00 I’ve spent in a long while! and at 4/1 !!! Thanks, and keep up the good work.

    Regards

    Mike

  2. Chris Worrall Post author

    I couldn’t believe the drfit in price, I had actually expected it to firm up a little and possibly be outright favourite. But I was convinced she’d go well and took another bet at win and place at betfair SP, which paid 8/1 and 2/1 respectively after commission. We’re not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination just yet, but a decent winner has been long overdue.
    Full marks for perseverence for all those on board today.

  3. Ian Hughes

    Fantastic write up…read the race to perfection Chris and I know all winning rides are good but thought Shane Kelly was excellent there. Unlike some of the rides given to recent selections. Also, anyone who uses a non BOG bookmaker these days must be crazy as demonstrated with today’s selection, makes a massive difference to overall profits….!! Well done,it was only a matter of time…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Cheers Ian, kind words indeed.
      Winning is nice, but to call the race correctly is equally satisfying. Sonko’s a tough horse to beat once she’s in front.

  4. Stuart

    A just reward for those of us who kept the faith.

    I’ve noticed one or two have drifted this last week or so, at least between the time I put the bet on and the off. A few months ago, the price only went one way after the tip was released. I suspect a few of the naysayers on here might have been laying the tips, and they’ll have had a good month. However, I suspect their long-term prospects are bleak.

    Good job Chris – thanks!

  5. Martin

    Just got in and watched the race as live on the ATR site.Well done Chris excellent pick and write up. Must admit i was waiting for another horse to come and pip us on the line with the recent luck we have been having.Tremendous

  6. Vincent Murphy

    This was a great tip and the race ran exactly how you said , this bet saved my day after a last leg disappointment of the Ascot placepot I have still managed to finish well in front on the day.
    Many thanks

  7. Josh Wright

    great result today Chris… made the decision about a month ago to back all selections 10 quid on the nose, no each way bets…stupid in hindsight as was followed by you/matt picking loads of placed horses! thought bad run must come to an end soon, so put 20 quid on the nose today with BOG bookie. back with a bang!!
    expect a run now haha

  8. Johnny5

    Chris

    Well pleased for you and Matt on Sotd – back on the winning Mark . After a month of cumlatelys and newbies slagging you guys off (understandable for gold diggers but not acceptable ) GREAT to see your well reasearched column coming good again .. And in the biggest winning drifter of the day !! God bless bog !!

    Good luck going forward lads

    Ps – where’s Gary and Atholl Blair comments now ? You’ve all gone quiet over there ! Keep on paying for Derek Thompsons tips lads and we will stay with the best value service in racing !!

  9. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Well done Chris – bet you can feel the weight off your shoulders ! I too thought your pick would firm up so placed my usual bet with SkyBet rather than with P.P. or Corals – you know the rest !!!!

    Great pick – A.W. seems a good safe bet currently, thought I was going to sink @ Plumpton last Monday !! (LOL).

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