Stat of the Day, 24th June 2017

Friday's Result :

7.05 Ayr : Euro Nightmare @ 7/2 BOG non-runner self-certified (not eaten up).

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.55 Ayr...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Speed Company @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner in this Class 3 grade four starts ago off a mark of 94, but has since toiled at a higher level off 98 & 99, failing to make the frame in three runs at Class 2.

Now eased to a more workable mark of 96 and back at Class 3, he looks well placed to record a 5th career win in just his 15th start, and of his current 4/14 record, he is...

  • 2/9 at 1m2f/1m2.5f, 2/6 on Good ground, 3/5 when priced at 6/1 or shorter
  • he's 2/3 under today's jockey Phillip Makin, 2/3 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 2 from 2 at Class 3 and has won one of his two starts here at Ayr.

In addition to the above, a quick look at the racecard shows he's a good way clear on our excellent speed ratings and will seek to give his trainer JJ (John) Quinn yet another Ayr winner to add to his record of 22/114 (19.3% SR) for 66.3pts (+58.1% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season, and these 114 include...

  • 19/99 (19.2%) for 58pts (+58.5%) from males
  • 16/94 (17%) for 65.7pts (+69.9%) in handicaps
  • 21/90 (23.3%) for 83.2pts (+92.4%) from his 2-5 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 33.2pts (+138.3%) from his 4 yr olds
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 25pts (+156.2%) from those ridden by today's jockey Phillip Makin.

Now, Phillip himself also has a good record at this venue and we already know he's 6/16 (37.5%) for 25pts (+156.2%) here on the Quinn horses, but since the start of 2014, he's actually 32/163 (19.6% SR) for 102pts (+62.6% ROI) here in Western Scotland witha 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) record over this 1m2f track and trip that has generated some 34.2pts of profits at an ROI of 126.6%.

And before I sign off for the weekend, I should also throw in the fact that Phillip is in absolutely terrific form at present : he has had 18 rides over the last 5 days and he has managed win seven times, whilst making the frame on three occasions, so he's certainly flying of late!

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Speed Company9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor and Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th June 2017

  1. Rambler

    Hi Chris – just wanted to tell you that although I’m away for a couple of months still follow you everyday and thanks for the recent run of wins. Much needed as the wife spends it quicker than I win it and the pensions also !!! Great stuff you are our own Alchemist. Best Wishes to you and the family Bob Smith

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