Thursday's Result :
5.10 Newcastle : It's Only Mossy @ 11/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 7.34am, reported as lame, but interestingly still entered for the 5.20 Doncaster on Friday!)
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Shypen at 3/1 BOG
This 3yr old filly has won 2 of her last five outings, including a success on this very track last time out, 16 days ago. That was another Class 5 encounter and was also the first time time she had been ridden by today's jockey, Jane Elliott.
The pair were clear of the pack with over a furlong to run last time, so the drop back in trip shouldn't be an issue for a horse who looks to be running after just the right amount of rest, coming here with a perfect 2 from 2 record racing 2 to 3 weeks after her last run. Add in those 1 from 1 course/jockey records and confidence should begin to build.
This should then be supplemented by finding out that she was sired by Archipenko, whose first runner appeared just over three years ago, when One Penny Piece won by half a length on June 13th 2013, incidentally also here at Yarmouth!
Since then, the sire has been represented a further 576 times and his progeny's record now stands at 86 winners from 577 (14.9% SR) for level stakes profits of 346.4pts at an very attractive ROI of 60%. Of those 577 runners, the following data is of interest/relevance today...
- Class 5/6 runners are 53/338 (15.7%) for 132.5pts (+39.2%)
- those last seen 16 to 90 days ago are 45/290 (15.5%) for 105.1pts (+36.2%)
- females are 33/193 (17.1%) for 227.5pts (+117.9%)
- on soft ground : 9/46 (19.6%) for 63.9pts (+138.9%)
- and here at Yarmouth : 3/7 (42.9%) for 68.45pts (+977.8%), clearly some big winners there!
AND...Class 5/6 females last seen 16-180 days ago are 14/58 (24.1% SR) for 64pts (+110.3% ROI) profit.
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS