Stat of the Day, 24th July 2015
Yesterday I told you that Jonjo O'Neill was profitable to follow at Worcester, especially in handicap contests and so it proved to be the case. All four of his runners were winners yesterday at SP's of 6/1, 11/2, 9/2 and 7/2 for a 4-timer at 1125/1 for anyone brave enough to do it.
I backed all four, but only as singles, the last of which was our SotD pick Temple Lord, who just got up in the nick of time to land Jonjo's son a first ever winner under Rules at 7/2.
We had, of course taken the early 5/1 BOG, giving us an extra 43% above SP and we now turn our attentions to Friday's runner, who will go in the...
Where I've taken 7/2 BOG from Betfair's Sportsbook about Talyani, a lightly raced 3yr old in this Class 4, 1m1f handicap on good to firm ground.
He's trained by William Haggas whose horses are absolutely flying at the moment and the market is often a very good judge of his runners' chances, as in the last four weeks, his handicappers priced at 4/1 and shorter are 20/40 (50% SR) for 15.64pts (+39.1% ROI) profit.
William Haggas is also a trainer to keep on side over the long haul too and since 2008, his Flat handicappers have a record of 219 winners from 1053 runners for a 20.8% strike rate and 174pts profit producing an ROI of 16.5%.
Of those 1053 runners...
- his 2 to 4 yr olds are 209/968 (21.6% SR) for 181.5pts (+18.8% ROI)
- those priced 6/4 to 10/1 are 174/738 (23.6% SR) for 205.2pts (+27.8% ROI)
- his Class 4 runners are 62/249 (24.9% SR) for 37.8pts +15.2% ROI)
- whilst those running here at York are 18/84 (21.4% SR) for 38.5pts (+45.9% ROI)
And if you backed all the Haggas 2 to 4 yr old handicappers priced at 6/4 to 10/1, you'd have 166 winners from 689 (24.1% SR) runners for a very healthy profit of 195.1pts at an ROI of 28.3%, with those running here at York winning 18 of 53 (34% SR) for 69.5pts (+131.2% ROI).
This is just Talyani's third start, having won on debut at Ripon at the start of June, before finishing third at Chelmsford 37 days ago, but a return to turf will suit him as will the fact that...
...3 to 5 yr olds running over 5 to 10 furlongs on the flat who won their penultimate race before finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th next/last time out in the past 16 to 60 days returned to winning ways on 285 of 1634 occasions, a 17.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 225.2pts (+13.8% ROI).
Class 4 runners fulfilling the above criteria (which aren't as complicated as they seem!) are 75/384 (19.5% SR) for 76.8pts at an ROI of 20%.
All the above was enough to persuade me to back Talyani at 7/2 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook (a price still available at 8.30pm), but if you want to use a different bookie...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS