Stat of the Day, 24th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th July 2015

Yesterday I told you that Jonjo O'Neill was profitable to follow at Worcester, especially in handicap contests and so it proved to be the case. All four of his runners were winners yesterday at SP's of 6/1, 11/2, 9/2 and 7/2 for a 4-timer at 1125/1 for anyone brave enough to do it.

I backed all four, but only as singles, the last of which was our SotD pick Temple Lord, who just got up in the nick of time to land Jonjo's son a first ever winner under Rules at 7/2.

We had, of course taken the early 5/1 BOG, giving us an extra 43% above SP and we now turn our attentions to Friday's runner, who will go in the...

6.00 York :

Where I've taken 7/2 BOG from Betfair's Sportsbook about Talyani, a lightly raced 3yr old in this Class 4, 1m1f handicap on good to firm ground.

He's trained by William Haggas whose horses are absolutely flying at the moment and the market is often a very good judge of his runners' chances, as in the last four weeks, his handicappers priced at 4/1 and shorter are 20/40 (50% SR) for 15.64pts (+39.1% ROI) profit.

William Haggas is also a trainer to keep on side over the long haul too and since 2008, his Flat handicappers have a record of 219 winners from 1053 runners for a 20.8% strike rate and 174pts profit producing an ROI of 16.5%.

Of those 1053 runners...

  • his 2 to 4 yr olds are 209/968 (21.6% SR) for 181.5pts (+18.8% ROI)
  • those priced 6/4 to 10/1 are 174/738 (23.6% SR) for 205.2pts (+27.8% ROI)
  • his Class 4 runners are 62/249 (24.9% SR) for 37.8pts +15.2% ROI)
  • whilst those running here at York are 18/84 (21.4% SR) for 38.5pts (+45.9% ROI)

And if you backed all the Haggas 2 to 4 yr old handicappers priced at 6/4 to 10/1, you'd have 166 winners from 689 (24.1% SR) runners for a very healthy profit of 195.1pts at an ROI of 28.3%, with those running here at York winning 18 of 53 (34% SR) for 69.5pts (+131.2% ROI).

This is just Talyani's third start, having won on debut at Ripon at the start of June, before finishing third at Chelmsford 37 days ago, but a return to turf will suit him as will the fact that...

...3 to 5 yr olds running over 5 to 10 furlongs on the flat who won their penultimate race before finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th next/last time out in the past 16 to 60 days returned to winning ways on 285 of 1634 occasions, a 17.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 225.2pts (+13.8% ROI).

Class 4 runners fulfilling the above criteria (which aren't as complicated as they seem!) are 75/384 (19.5% SR) for 76.8pts at an ROI of 20%.

All the above was enough to persuade me to back Talyani at 7/2 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook (a price still available at 8.30pm), but if you want to use a different bookie... here for the betting on the 6.00 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

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Here is today's racecard.

30 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th July 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I had a bit of free time this afternoon, so I managed to get started earlier than normal.
      The plan is to get them out as quickly as I can (within reason), then add the write-ups later once I’ve turned my scribbled notes into some form of English.

      1. Blokeshead

        With a mother from Manchester and a father from way down south, I’ve heard this debate about lunch/dinner and tea/dinner once or twice before over the years. It did occasionally create confusion when I were a lad, as neither would give way on it. “See you after dinner” could mean very different things to them.

        No doubt, Chris, you also call that green stuff on which horses (normally) run a word rhyming with “ass” rather than “farce”?

        In my youth, my mother and I had many debates about whether there should or shouldn’t be an “r” in “castle” or “bath”, although she never did explain to me how “father” can be pronounced the same as “farther”. I still smile wryly when I hear someone pronounce “look” and “Luke” the same.

        Spelling/linguistics caused endless amusement on the train going oop north when it stopped at Crewe. Try explaining that spelling to a curious child! Happy days…

        Great pick today, Sir – thanks!

  1. Rambler

    Chris – think they must be checking your posts a.s.a.p. now as the best I could muster was 3/1

    Great win today with Temple Lord – good O’Neill double

    1. Blokeshead

      Check out Betfair Sportsbook if you haven’t been banned/restricted, Bob. I find them VERY useful – often top price (as they were last night in this case) and some reasonable free bet offers.

      I’d not even seen that they existed until I started to run out of BOGs bookies – now they’re one of only a handful I can still use.


  2. simonr

    Hi Chris,
    Thanks again for yesterday. Just one tongue-in-cheek gripe…..
    After yesterday’s win I received an Email from Coral: no more
    money back specials,bonuses etc and no more BOG.
    Regards Simon

  3. (John) Paul Ambrose

    Chris, you may have seen in the “Geegeez Tipping…” blog post that I jokingly told Matt it should take only 7 weeks, playing at £40 per point and at historic ROI on SotD, to recoup the lifetime subscription I’d just taken out.
    You’ve just helped me to do it in 5 days (four selections)! Incredible.
    Thanks again,

  4. Mike1974

    Got this yesterday from Boylesports
    Does it look familiar?

    I’ve not just lost BOG as I did with Betvictor and Stan James, I am not allowed to put even £1 on a horse.

    Thou shalt not win – the bookies message to all punters.


    ‘Important Information Regarding Your Account’

    Hi Michael,

    We regret to inform you that we have made changes to the way we administer your sports betting account.

    Your account has been restricted. This means you can no longer avail of our fon-a-bet service, Horse Racing and Sports promotions.

    You can still transact via our website or mobile website.

    Should you have any queries regarding this change in policy, please contact our 24/7 customer service team.

    The BoyleSports Team

    1. simonr

      Hi Mike, yes that looks very familiar. I got the same from Boyles after
      having the cheek to win with three selections on the trot. If they’d had the gonads to keep my account open they would have got at least half of it back as I then went on a bit of a long losing run. Never mind on to the next…

  5. whiston01

    Great selection Chris (AGAIN)
    I know where you are coming from Mike1974.Boyles stopped me ages ago and more recently so did everybodys favourite Bet365. Both of them resricted me to less than a £1 and both said i could have what i wanted on the roulette,joke racing and any game of chance. Thanks a lot but no thanks.

  6. James Cross

    Mike that is all too common these days. It really annoys me that bookies can lay bets yet not allow people to win money from them.

    That’s not bookmaking at all is it, it’s just weighting the odds even more in their favour.

    I can fully understand that they withdraw the promotions such as BOG to regular winners but they shouldn’t be allowed to stop them betting with them completely just because they make a profit.

    They should have to lay horses to lose a certain amount to all at the price advertised, be that to lose £1,000 or £500, whatever is legislated, as has recently happened in Australia.

    If they don’t comply they should have their licence removed.

  7. jethro

    Hi Simonr and whiston1

    In relation to your comments above a quick question to you both please if you guys don’t mind sharing your experiences with others here.
    Roughly how much profit did you guys make over what period of time with both Coral and Bet365 respectively, before you got these harsh restrictions imposed on you?
    I fully realize that this subject is highly personal and completely understand if you would rather not say – I just happen to use these two bookies in particular quite frequently and I’m wondering how long it will be until I face the same problem!
    Cheers Jethro…

    1. Blokeshead

      Hi Jethro

      Bet365 restricted me over New Year. I demanded a full statement showing ALL of my activity for the previous 12 months. They protested, and it took two weeks, but in the end I got it.

      In a nutshell, I’d been betting an average of around 36,000 Swedish kronor (roughly £2,750) per month with them and, over the entire 12 months, showed a loss of 17,160kr (about £1300). This is before all of the special offers and things (e.g. their free bets on 4/1 winners, and occasional “Here’s some free money, sir” deals.

      The amount I deposited over the year minus the amount I withdrew was -6703kr, taking into account opening and closing balances, which to me says I lost 6,703kr with them over the 12-months, i.e. just over £500.

      So, why on earth did they restrict me? I don’t know, and of course they won’t tell me or anyone else why their “traders” took the decision. I looked more closely and saw I’d been profitable in only 5 of the 12 months, but in December I had landed one big accumulator which not only saved my year with them but also might have sounded the alarm. But, other than that, my behaviour throughout the year remained constant.

      I was profitable overall last year, and have been this year so far too, yet nobody else has shut me down for a while now. I spread my bets around, but I did last year too. Why did they close down a profitable client? It’s one big mystery to me.

      I made such a fuss that one of their managers actually called me late one evening. He promised to get the traders to look at it again. They did, but of course nothing happened – I knew it wouldn’t. But I miss my Bet365 account. They’re often the first ones to put out odds, and the occasional free money deals are good. And I found their racing feed to be MUCH better than anyone else’s. One or two sites won’t let me stream races, for example, because I’m not in the UK.

      1. Blokeshead

        Oops, dodgy typing skills. I had to deposit 6,703kr more over the year than I withdrew, opening and closing balances taken into account. That figure was my overall loss for the 12-month period.

    2. simonr

      Hi Jethro.
      I have looked at the statement from Coral and my overall profit this year is just short of £1500. I think things may have gone wrong recently because of the frequncy of winners I’ve had with them. The spreading it round technique, due to coincidence, has meant that Corals have been hit where other bookies have benefitted.

  8. jethro

    Hi Blokeshead and Simon,
    Thank you both very much for your responses above!
    Your situation with Bet365 Blokeshead sounds rather unusual to say the least, not to mention unjust by the sound of things! I opened an account with them only a few months ago and I am already about £600 in profit. As you rightly mention, they are great at putting up early odds and very good ones at that, which is why I have bet very often with them in recent times and would be sorry to lose their service.
    As for Coral Simon, you’re situation sounds more logical. I am currently about £1200 in profit with them over the last year; so it sounds like my time is fast approaching! Like you, I try to spread my bets around; and through sheer coincidence I seem to be on with either Bet365 of Coral when the winners have come in unfortunately.
    If only Chris would stop nailing the winners we would all be ok! (Ha ha – just joking…)
    I guess there are a number of alternative bookies to turn to at least when this happens. Using different username’s with each one might help in staying under their radar’s if they swap customer information with each other – he said hopefully…
    Anyway – thanks again for your time guys – Cheers Jethro

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