Thursday's Result :
8.00 Wolverhampton : Amazement @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, led inside final furlong, kept on well to win by 2.25 lengths
Friday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Night of Sin @ 11/4 BOG
A 4 yr old gelding making his 4th career start, having won last time out in this grade, on similarly soft ground under today's jockey (Lizzie Kelly) over a trip just 100yds further at Bangor. That won was his first crack at going left handed like he will today and even from just three previous runs we now know that Class/trip/going/direction and jockey are all fine, but that's not why I've picked him!
Yes, they all contribute, but what first caught my eye was the fact that he's a Nick Williams youngster running a juvenile, but why should that be of note?
Here's why... Nick Williams / October to April / 2009-17 / 4 to 7 yrs old / 0-10 previous runs for the yard = 92/521 (17.7% SR) for 159.7pts (+30.7% ROI) and that angle alone is worth a point of my money.
But I realise that not everyone wants to place over 60 bets every 6 months on just one angle, so we can break those 521 runners down in a whole host of proftable ways and here are some that apply today...
- in Juvenile races : 86/480 (17.9%) for 169.2pts (+35.2%)
- over hurdles : 57/336 (17%) for 95.2pts (+28.3%)
- in non-handicaps : 52/287 (18.1%) for 86pts (+30%)
- from December to February inclusive : 55/250 (22%) for 158.3pts (+63.3%)
- on Soft/Heavy ground : 52/234 (22.2%) for 125.5pts (+53.6%)
- after a break of 26-60 days : 42/208 (20.2%) for 89.5pts (+43%)
- at Class 4 : 45/201 (22.4%) for 112.1pts (+55.8%)
- over trips om 2m/2m0.5f : 29/174 (16.7%) for 96.5pts (+55.5%)
- those ridden by Nick's daughter, Lizzie Kelly are 23/107 (21.5%) for 128.5pts (+120.1%)
- LTO winners are 22/93 (23.7%) for 22.3pts (+24%)
- and here at Warwick : 5/18 (27.8%) for 21.7pts (+120.3%)
Hopefully you'll find something in the above that appeals to you, but I certainly think...
...it justifies...a 1pt win bet on Night of Sin @ 11/4 BOG which was available with Betbright, Paddy Poer & SkyBet at 5.15pm on Thursday, but DO take the 3/1 BOG on offer with Bet365 if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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