Stat of the Day, 24th August 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Phalawarba @ 4/1 BOG - 3rd at 7/2 : Raced wide headway to lead over 5f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, beaten by a length...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.25 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Madeline @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Wow! Nosebleed time for me at the rarified atmosphere of Group racing, but this 2 yr old filly has enough about her to drag me away from my usual Class 5 provincial handicaps!

She's 2 from 4 so far, including 2 from 3 at this 6f distance and won a Listed race last time out almost five weeks ago.

Trainer Roger Varian / July-October / 2 yr olds with just 2-5 career runs / No jockey claim / ran in a non-handicap LTO = 22/91 (24.2% SR) for 71.9pts (+79% ROI) over the past five seasons, from which...

  • at 5-7.5 furlongs : 20/77 (26%) for 76.2pts (+99%)
  • in non-hcps : 17/73 (23.3%) for 40.1pts (+55%)
  • on turf : 19/72 (26.4%) for 63.9pts (+88.7%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 20/70 (28.6%) for 82.1pts (+117.3%)
  • females are 12/50 (24%) for 57.7pts (+115.4%)
  • ridden by Andrea Atzeni : 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.4pts (+87.5%)
  • in fillies' races : 8/36 (22.2%) for 42.8pts (+118.9%)
  • and at Class 1 : 5/21 (23.8%) for 33.8pts (+160.9%)

Jockey Andrea Atzeni has 14 winners from 67 (20.9% SR) over the last 30 days and is 6/30 (20%) in the last week and when riding for Roger Varian here at York : 7/28 (25% SR) for 8.65pts (+30.9% ROI) over the last four seasons with those runners priced at 15/8 to 6/1 winning 7 of 17 (41.2%) for profits of 19.65pts at an ROI of 115.6%.

...but, for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Madeline @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 York 

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 24th August 2017

  1. Neil Owen

    Is this the worst run of results you’ve ever had ?

    It’s now becoming very painful to follow, I know you will argue how many points up over the year you are but those points have been hit very hard especially as you tend to spend the profits gained to a degree, after all winnings are there to enjoy are they not ?

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No, it’s not the worst and I think I offered an ample explanation yesterday and this is the last I’m going to comment upon form/results etc.

      I declare my results every day, do a weekly roundup every week and the whole set of monthly figures are available for all to see and for all to formulate a strategy.

      Anybody following anyone else’s selections needs a bankroll in place, end of story.

      1. James Cross

        I remember similar reactions to the last bad run you had over a year ago Chris.

        People were saying they were 40 points down and were stopping backing the selections because it would take too long to get the money back or words to that effect.

        Result ? They missed out on the purple patch when they would have won their 40 points back many fold.

        It baffles me that so many people are so quick to crib or even ditch a proven long term profitable strategy. Surely that is the one thing everyone in this game is looking for.

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