Stat of the Day, 24th August 2013
It was another blank day for SotD yesterday, as Stagemanship seemed to run out of steam in the closing stages having led on the rails up to just over a furlong from home. He seemed to be toiling up the hill late on and finished quite a way behind the eventual winner Chief Barker, who inevitably became Richard Hannon's first winner in 35 attempts after I'd mentioned it yesterday!
Deja vu time today with the same jockey at the same track riding in the...
As expected, Mickael Barzalona duly picked up a couple of winners here yesterday, further improving his fantastic record on the July course at Newmarket. After yesterday's efforts, he has now ridden 34 winners from 136 attempts here: an excellent record of exactly one winner in four (24.6%), producing level stakes profits of some 66pts (a 48.5% return on stakes).
From those 136 rides, he has a record of 12/38 (31.6%) for 25.44pts (+66.95% ROI) when riding here for Saeed bin Suroor, as he does today.
This year has been no exception to his outstanding run of form at this track, as he has clocked up 15 winners from his 49 rides (30.6%) for 19.1pts (+39% ROI) profit. From which he has achieved a record of 10/25 (40%) for 23.87pts (+95.5% ROI) for Saeed bin Suroor.
As I said yesterday, his July course figures aren't bulked out or skewed by big priced winners either: his best figures come when he's on a horse priced between Evens and 12/1 with 32 of his 34 winners being priced accordingly. These 32 winners come from 110 rides (29.1% SR) for 89.2pts (+81.1% ROI) profit and a record of 10/33 (30.3%) for 27.67pts (+83.8% ROI) for the bin Suroor yard and this year alone the overall record here is 13/39 for 26.4pts, a more than healthy 67.7% return on stakes and 8/22 (36.4%) for 24.11pts (+109.6% ROI) for Mr bin Suroor.
Messrs Barzalona and bin Suroor have 2 runners together today: Ustura runs in the 3.20 race and has a squeak of an E/W chance, but I'm going with newcomer Ghazi, due to the yard's excellent record with 2 yr olds on debut.
Last 3 seasons: 33/129 (25.6%) : +35.3pts (+27.4% ROI) with 33/120 (27.5%) for 45.3pts (+37.8% ROI) at 12/1 or less
This year: 14/45 (31.1%) : +23.3pts (51.7% ROI) with 14/43 (32.6%) for 25.3pts (+58.8% ROI) at 12/1 or less
With Barzalona on board: 7/18 (38.9%) at 12/1 or under for 11.97pts (+66.5% ROI)
Ghazi is an Exceed And Excel colt and is the first foal out of 11f winner Concordia who herself is a half-sister to top-class middle distance winner Lammtarra. This breeding does suggest he'll want further than today's 6f in time and he'll probably end up in the 1m2f to 1m4f area, but they all have to start somewhere.
It's not an easy race to call, but we can be sure that his yard will have him as ready as he can be for this one and a 1pt win bet on Ghazi at the opening show of 4/1 BOG looks a decent enough proposition to me today and it's a price that is widely available as of 0845 this morning. So to take your pick of the bookies, simply...
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