Stat of the Day, 24th April 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 24th April 2015

When One For Hocky doubled in price from our advised 7/2 BOG out to 7/1 shortly before race time, I wasn't too concerned, I just thought we'd be doubling our returns!

Unfortunately we had to settle for third place at the end of a strange race, where I wasn't entirely sure what was going on. Brian Harding held our runner up as is normally the case with this horse and he gradually started to ease into contention without being asked for an effort.

As push came to shove in the final furlongs, it just seemed a matter of time before Brian would press the button and we'd see some action, but it seemed to me as though he never asked the horse to go and win in what I would diplomatically call a "very conservative ride". The fact he only lost by 3.5 lengths suggests the race was there to be won.

Never mind, eh? There's always Friday and the...

4.50 Perth:

And an 11/4 BOG bet with Bet365 on Fergal O'Brien's 7 yr old gelding Son of Suzie.

Fergal doesn't send many horses here to Perth, probably because it's an 800-mile round trip from his Gloucestershire base, but those who do venture this far North often go home with at least the diesel money covered, as 7 of the 26 (26.(% SR) have won, producing 16.6pts profit at an ROI of 63.7%. Chuck in another three lots of place money and there might be enough for a bag of chips on the way home too!

In handicaps here at Perth, Fergal is 6/20 (30% SR) for 18.8pts (+94.1% ROI) and with horses sent off at 6/1 or shorter he's 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 21.5pts (+195.6% ROI) , of which he's 5/10 (50% SR) for 18.76pts (+187.6% ROI) in handicap contests.

This is a race for conditional jockeys and Conor Shoemark is one of the better ones around at present and he also has a good record at riding for the owners of Son of Suzie, winning 5 of 14 races (35.7% SR) for 14.1pts (+100.8% ROI) profit.

All the above data, whilst perfectly valid, does admittedly revolve around fairly small sample sizes, so let's introduce one more piece of the jigsaw and a total of 2707 runners since the start of 2008!

2707 is the number of runs made by offspring of one of my favourite sires, Midnight Legend, since the start of 2008. And why do I like him? Because his "babies" win races, regularly and profitably! In fact 399 of the 2707 (14.7% SR) have won so far and a £20 stake on all of those runners would have made you £14,960 profit to date, an overall return of 27.6% above stakes invested. And that's from blind backing at win only level stakes betting.

In handicaps the figures are 234/1445 (16.2% SR) for 638.9pts (+44.2% ROI) and there are umpteen ways of refining this data to make micro systems (trust me, I have done! 😀 ) , but without labouring the point and boring you with numbers, I'll give you a stat relevant to this race and that is that Midnight Legend's progeny in handicap hurdles over trips of 2m5f and beyond are 49/299 (16.4% ROI) for 273.1pts (+91.3% ROI) with those priced below 9/1 winning 35 of 145 (24.1% SR) for 76.4pts (+52.7% ROI).

I've taken 11/4 BOG about Son of Suzie with Bet365, as they were the best available at 1.00am, but 5/2 BOG was widely available and you can always check if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.50 Perth

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