Friday's Result :
Saturday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Hussar Ballad @ 9/4 BOG
This 8 yr old gelding failed to make the frame in three successive efforts on turf before a switch back to All-Weather racing a fortnight ago resulted in a course and distance win here in this grade under today's jockey, making this horse the sole qualifier from my A/W returning to form microsystem today.
The basic parameters are A/W handicaps here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2013 with horses priced at 10/11 to 4/1, so we're at the sharper end of the market.
Our runner needed to have won last time out 11 to 30 days ago, but was unplaced in a string of 3 or more consecutive races immediately ahead of that win ie the return to form.
And since the start of 2013, this has thrown up 34 winners from 99 at a strike rate of 34.2% with level stakes profits of 45.2pts (+45.7% ROI). And of these 99 runners...
- males are 26/72 (36.1%) for 36.2pts (+50.3%)
- won at Class 6 LTO : 26/67 (38.8%) for 39.9pts (+59.5%)
- ran here at Wolverhampton LTO : 22/67 (32.8%) for 28.2pts (+42%)
- won at the same trip LTO : 21/61 (34.4%) for 32pts (+52.5%)
- Class 6 runners are 16/50 (32%) for 13.8pts (+27.6%)
- same C&D as LTO : 14/45 (31.1%) for 18pts (+40%)
- in September/October : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.12pts (+50.9%)
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad @ 9/4 BOG, which was offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!