Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2017

Friday's Result :

4.55 Ayr : Heavens Rock @ 7/2 BOG non-runner : Meeting abandoned...

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hussar Ballad @ 9/4 BOG

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding failed to make the frame in three successive efforts on turf before a switch back to All-Weather racing a fortnight ago resulted in a course and distance win here in this grade under today's jockey, making this horse the sole qualifier from my A/W returning to form microsystem today.

The basic parameters are A/W handicaps here at Wolverhampton since the start of 2013 with horses priced at 10/11 to 4/1, so we're at the sharper end of the market.

Our runner needed to have won last time out 11 to 30 days ago, but was unplaced in a string of 3 or more consecutive races immediately ahead of that win ie the return to form.

And since the start of 2013, this has thrown up 34 winners from 99 at a strike rate of 34.2% with level stakes profits of 45.2pts (+45.7% ROI). And of these 99 runners...

  • males are 26/72 (36.1%) for 36.2pts (+50.3%)
  • won at Class 6 LTO : 26/67 (38.8%) for 39.9pts (+59.5%)
  • ran here at Wolverhampton LTO : 22/67 (32.8%) for 28.2pts (+42%)
  • won at the same trip LTO : 21/61 (34.4%) for 32pts (+52.5%)
  • Class 6 runners are 16/50 (32%) for 13.8pts (+27.6%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 14/45 (31.1%) for 18pts (+40%)
  • in September/October : 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.12pts (+50.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hussar Ballad @ 9/4 BOG, which was offered by both Bet365 & BetVictor at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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