Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2013

A bit of a stinker from At A Clip yesterday. She never got close to the action and was struggling from an early point in the race before being (sensibly, in my opinion) eased down to trot home last of ten runners. The race was already lost and no point flogging a horse that's struggling. I just hope there's nothing wrong with her.

But, that was yesterday and today's another day, so we'll crack on with a Class 6, 6 furlong handicap where 14 runners will attempt to win the....

6.40 Salisbury:

Some trainers are particularly adept at getting their horses fit and fresh and in winning form for their seasonal debut. If we take a look at james Fanshawe's horses returning from a break of six to eight months in particular (ie they've had a decent winter rest, but haven't been allowed to get too fat / lazy / rusty!), we can instantly see that theres' something in his methodology that brings him success.

From 2010 to today, James has run 46 horses after a break of six to eight months and eleven of those have been winners, a 23.91% strike rate generating level stakes profit at SP of 23.83pts, a more than satisfactory ROI of 51.8%. However, we never back at SP, so as a comparison, the returns based on a betfair SP (these are closer to BOG returns than SP) are an impressive 30.1pts (+65.4% ROI). And James has sent out eight such runners already this term, netting himself 3 winners (and one placed) for level stakes profits of 22pts and25.3pts respectivley, so it would seem that he has working his magic over the winter again.

Today sees the return of Levi Draper, a son of Rock of Gibraltar, who signed off his last campaign with a win over 5f at Wolverhampton and will look to make a successful reappearance if picking up where he left off. That win was his first after knocking on the door very strongly in three third-place finishes prior to that run last October and it is thought that his progression allied to his breeding mean that he's likely to improve much more with time/runs. He had struggled a little for form, but the last four good results have all come whilst wearing a hood and that is reapplied for his return to turf action today.

He seems to be have been given a fairly lenient mark today, running off 61 despite winning off 69 last time out and his chances must be boosted by the rare booking of Richard Hughes to ride him: Richard has only ridden four of Fanshawe's horses in the last six years!

It's a fairly big field and it's likely he'll be the favourite, but neither of those deter me, as I genuinely think he'll take all the beating today, so it's a 1pt win bet on Levi Draper at 7/2 BOG. The price is widely available and I'm using bet365 today, but you really should...

Click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Salisbury.

 

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3 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2013

  1. Matt Bisogno Post author

    Top bombing, Chris. In absolutely flying form!

    I opposed him in my placepot, but luckily had the third nag.

    Well played mate.

    Matt

  2. Pennies Punter

    Dear Matt,
    If you remember visiting the Nile cafe with Mrs Matt to give me a £50 cheque and eat some of my grub you will know I am a big fan. I am astonished at how Geegeez is growing and more power to your elbow for the astonishing hard work you put in. Some time ago I posed a question which could only be answered by statistics and was gobsmacked when you came up with an answer the following day.

    So now I have another. Do you recall the famous Hole In The Wall gang? They were dubbed that because they had sussed that holes in one in golf were much more prevalent than the bookies thought and laid very substantial bets that left the enemy battered and bruised and was the equivalent of emptying a huge number of cashpoint machines,

    We all know that favs win approximately 30% of races, then of course there are the 2nds and thirds in the betting. We also know that most people cannot get anywhere using those stats because, like me, their staking and betting bank is not large enough to sustain the losses of the 70% that don’t win.

    However, I have recently noticed (and this might be because of the advent of the exchanges creating more accurate prices and reflections of what will win) that what seems frequently favs will win all the races on the card or all bar one.

    How often does this happen? Would it be statistically rewarding simply to take meetings and simply perm all the favourites on a regular basis? I am beginning to think it might be, but would love some stat backing. Also, might it be applicable to certain tracks or meetings because the number of punters create a ‘crowd wisdom’ or because they are ‘fair’ tracks ? I think this could potentially be a fruitful angle, and if it ain’t it would be worth the analysis to find out.

    What do you think?

    Philip

    P.S. I think this probably applies to the flat rather than jumps, but again I might be deluded.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Philip

      Apologies for the delay in publishing and replying to your comment. Just been very busy.

      I don’t have the technology to work out how many meetings have five or six winning favourites, but the clue is in the overall figures. Basically, if 30% of fav’s win then the VAST majority of meetings will have less than five winning favourites.

      I’m absolutely certain this is a recent freak occurrence – a fluke, if you will – and I fear the quest for the golden goose (or at least a long term profitable angle) will not end here.

      Sorry I can’t substantiate my position with anything beyond a macro view but I’d be very surprised if I’m wrong on this one. (Makes a change!)

      Matt

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