Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2013
A bit of a stinker from At A Clip yesterday. She never got close to the action and was struggling from an early point in the race before being (sensibly, in my opinion) eased down to trot home last of ten runners. The race was already lost and no point flogging a horse that's struggling. I just hope there's nothing wrong with her.
But, that was yesterday and today's another day, so we'll crack on with a Class 6, 6 furlong handicap where 14 runners will attempt to win the....
Some trainers are particularly adept at getting their horses fit and fresh and in winning form for their seasonal debut. If we take a look at james Fanshawe's horses returning from a break of six to eight months in particular (ie they've had a decent winter rest, but haven't been allowed to get too fat / lazy / rusty!), we can instantly see that theres' something in his methodology that brings him success.
From 2010 to today, James has run 46 horses after a break of six to eight months and eleven of those have been winners, a 23.91% strike rate generating level stakes profit at SP of 23.83pts, a more than satisfactory ROI of 51.8%. However, we never back at SP, so as a comparison, the returns based on a betfair SP (these are closer to BOG returns than SP) are an impressive 30.1pts (+65.4% ROI). And James has sent out eight such runners already this term, netting himself 3 winners (and one placed) for level stakes profits of 22pts and25.3pts respectivley, so it would seem that he has working his magic over the winter again.
Today sees the return of Levi Draper, a son of Rock of Gibraltar, who signed off his last campaign with a win over 5f at Wolverhampton and will look to make a successful reappearance if picking up where he left off. That win was his first after knocking on the door very strongly in three third-place finishes prior to that run last October and it is thought that his progression allied to his breeding mean that he's likely to improve much more with time/runs. He had struggled a little for form, but the last four good results have all come whilst wearing a hood and that is reapplied for his return to turf action today.
He seems to be have been given a fairly lenient mark today, running off 61 despite winning off 69 last time out and his chances must be boosted by the rare booking of Richard Hughes to ride him: Richard has only ridden four of Fanshawe's horses in the last six years!
It's a fairly big field and it's likely he'll be the favourite, but neither of those deter me, as I genuinely think he'll take all the beating today, so it's a 1pt win bet on Levi Draper at 7/2 BOG. The price is widely available and I'm using bet365 today, but you really should...
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