Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2017

Wednesday's Result :

5.00 Newcastle : Spirit of the Vale @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Slowly into stride in rear, headway in centre from over 2f out, stayed on to chase winner inside final furlong

Thursday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rosie Crowe5/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old mare, beaten by just 0.75 lengths last time out here over course and distance five weeks ago. She runs off the same mark (50) here, but is boosted by the booking of 5lb claimer Charlie Bennett to ease the burden somewhat.

Trainer Shaun Harris has got his horses running well at present and he's no stranger to putting this jockey up for a ride or two and they have been quite successful together.

In fact the partnership is 10 from 79 (12.7% SR) for 35.7pts (+45.2% ROI) profit and whilst we've had better strike rates/ROIs for our headline stats in the past, these are actually excellent figures for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

We can, of course, tweak and refine the data to fit to today's contest and here similar race conditions, those 79 races have produced the following...

  • in handicaps : 10/72 (13.9%) for 42.7pts (+59.3%)
  • when Charlie claims his 5lbs : 7/68 (10.3%) for 22.9pts (+33.7%)
  • on the All-Weather : 7/56 (12.5%) for 27.5pts (+49.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/50 (18%) for 57.2pts (+114.4%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 9/40 (22.5%) for 44.2pts (+110.6%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/15 (26.7%) for 23pts (+153.3%)

...pointing us towards...a 1pt win bet on Rosie Crowe 5/1 BOG which was pretty widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but DO grab the 11/2 BOG offered by Hills if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2017

  1. Doshtosh

    Hi, Chris, it does look like our “friendly bookmakers/accountants” really are on to us, now. I tried to bet your selection immediately after the 7.15 7/2 was the best I could do and, even then, so as not to rile the lowlifes too much I had to split the bets between two. 365 used to take all of my bets all of the time, especially when we had that shocking run last year, that scenario is just a memory nowadays. It seems that each one of them, only, need to be clouted a couple of times before they alter the goalposts, perhaps Betfair’s returned price will be the way we have to go, obviously, if that’s the case there won’t be as much urgency to get the message asap. Has anyone else, I wonder, noticed to noose tightening, it really would be good to hit them, any/all of them for six, but they don’t believe in a fair fight…..they don’t believe in any kind of fight, just refuse to “play”
    Stay well, Chris, and let’s hope we get to give them a bit more grief very soon.
    John.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Yes, the cowards don’t seem up for fair fights anymore.

      I had my Bet365 account withdrawn at 11am on Day 1 of the festival last week, which tied up a large percentage of my bankroll, until they could “process a withdrawal”. I also had an account with Betstars blocked without even getting to place a single bet and they took 8 days to refund my deposit.

      Something has to give, if they’re not happy to take sensible bets, they shouldn’t be in the game.

    2. andyrich666

      Why would you just bet on it straight away, I looked at this horse a lot today, and it just did not do it for me, I use this as a guide and not like a lemming. No offence and sometimes the stat beats me, but not usually on the AW. If your using it like that then your effectively using this page a s tipping system, You will never hit them for six this way.

      1. Chris Worrall Post author

        I’m pleased that you disagreed with my selection and duly swerved it, well done.

        SotD is essentially a stat-based tipping service and my figures speak for themselves. If you’re beating me, then fair play to you.

        I’m happy with my record, not just this month, this quarter or over the last year, but we’ve got 5 yrs of solid results behind us, so with the utmost of respect, to suggest our readers and followers of SotD are lemmings is grossly unfair and totally not in the spirit in which we operate Geegeez.

  2. Doshtosh

    I’m amazed at your 365 experience, I thought I was being singled out! (vanity) Just to tell you that I used to bet, last year, and many years, with 365 and often (maybe 5 or 6 times per week) had 4 figure bets with them, this past few weeks every bet I have (no 4 figure ones) has been sent to the “trading room” or wherever and some have gone through, others have partially been accepted. I’ve complained and have received a sympathetic (or courteous) hearing but I’ve also been told that once the decision is made it can’t be reversed ffs! Briefly, I want to tell you how I opened an account with 365. Years ago I was heading to Haydock Park to see One Cool Cat run in that sprint, there, my train from London was diverted, (was going to Wigan and being picked up) to Warrington, I was stood in a taxi rank with R.P. under my arm, a car pulled up and the passenger asked if I was going to the track and did I want a lift, that can be dodgy but I figured I’m a big boy and can take care of things….some things! Anyway, as we were going there and talking the passenger turned out to be a director of 365 I mentioned they were known as Bet £3.65, he said he knew. When we got to the track I asked him if I could get him a drink before I met up with my people, he said he had people to meet too, so I offered some money, for the lift, but he didn’t want that, however, he asked that when I got home to London would I open an account with 365, mention his name and I could bet (within some kind of reason) as I liked. I got home on Monday and, to keep my word, opened the account as he had suggested and for a long time I did bet as I wanted, but, maybe he’s gone, maybe he’s forgotten, maybe some new prick is in the trading room, but things, recently, have changed, and not, it appears, just with me. Sorry to be so long-winded, but it’s interesting, if not advantageous to any of us.

    John.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I was more annoyed/frustrated at my money being tied up for the festival, as I had to make alternative provisions.

      I am, however, becoming increasingly dismayed at the actions of the online firms. I suggest they get a dictionary and look up the definition of the word bookmaker.

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