Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2015

Although it was disappointing to see Magical Daze withdrawn from her intended run at Lingfield on Wednesday, there was a silver attached to the cloud in so much as it now means we're guaranteed to make July yet another profitable month for SotD.

The key now is to put as many points on the board as we can, starting with Thursday's...

5.55 Worcester :

And a bet on Temple Lord at 5/1 BOG with Bet365, Betfred or Totesport (I've used the latter) and here's why...

He's trained by Jonjo O'Neill who is (marginally) profitable to follow blindly here at Worcester, as his 74 winners from 376 runners (19.7% SR) since the start of 2008 have genertaed a modest 105pts (+2.79% ROI) profit. Now profit is profit, but I'm not going to start pitching SotD at such small returns, we need to see if there's a logical of improving the numbers.

It turns out that his bumper runners although successful from a strike rate point of view, actaully lose money and his non-handicap record isn't brilliant either and with today's contest being a handicap hurdle, let's look at Jonjo's 'cappers here at Worcester.

You'll be pleased to hear that they are indeed nicely profitable, as the 50 winners from 243 (20.6% SR) have generated 64.2pts (+26.4% ROI) of level stakes profit at an attractive ROI of 26.4% and now we're in business. A further logical step would be too look at his handicap hurdlers here and they're 28 from 133 (21.1% SR) for 65pts (+48.9% ROI), with those runing on good to firm ground winning 10 of 40 (25% SR) for 34.2pts (+85.6% ROI).

Temple Lord comes here on the back of an 18-race losing streak (ouch! but I've done worse on SotD!) since winning on his last visit her to Worcester, but did show signs of a return to form when 4th at Southwell last time out on his hurdling debut. The return to familiar surroundings and the benefit of having had a run over hurdles are both sure to help, as is the fact he's now rated some 20lbs lower than his last win.

I haven't taken leave of my senses putting him up, as there are some positive signs to hand, he has won at this track and he has won 1of 2 at this grade and goes well on good to firm ground, but you might get more reassutance from the fact that since 2009, horses running in Class 4 & 5 handicap hurdles off a lower mark than their last win which was at least 10 runs ago are 125/613 (20.4% SR) for 100.2pts (+165.3% ROI) profit.

Of those 613 long-term losers, the record for those running off marks 10 to 24 lbs lower than their last win is 59/264 (22.4% SR) for 79.6pts (+30.2% ROI) profit, with those running on good to firm ground winning 14 of 41 (34.2% SR) for 30.9pts at an ROI of 75.3%.

Backing any horse after such a lengthy losing run is a bit of a leap of faith, but the stats say they do win often enough to follow, which is why I'm on Temple Lord at 5/1 BOG and to make your choice of the bookies... here for the betting on the 5.55 Worcester

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Here is today's racecard.

23 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2015

  1. (John) Paul Ambrose

    Cheers Chris. I Like it…price is crucial to returns, I’d say, and as your selections normally shorten, the earlier the better. I placed mine with Totesport and I can confidently say that their reconfigured s(h)ite is the worst I have ever encountered. Looks like they’re trying to make people cock up their bets!

  2. sondrio2

    thanks for getting it so quick chris, appreciated.
    and thanks to paul in the forum for informing us on there as soon as youve posted on twitter.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      If I just post the bare selection, I can have it up a good half hour (or more!) earlier, but people will have to take the picks on trust.

      The point re: twitter is one worth repeating, though.

      Every time I post SotD (and DD for that matter), it is announced straight away on facebook and Twitter, so if you’re on either platform, you should be following us and if you’re not already, why not? 😀

  3. jethro

    Simply superb Chris! Thanks once again!!!
    You’re constantly adding to my woes of disguising just how well I am doing from the eagle-eye account watchers in each of the bookies at the moment; but what a nice problem to have! Ha ha…

  4. Doshtosh

    At 5/1 this guy was ample! The jockey isn’t too bad, though I saw him look a little iffy, early on, still with a name like that, how can he fail? And, as long as we stick with you, Chris, we won’t fail, either, a fabulous shout, thanks so very much.

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