Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2018

Monday's Result :

1.25 Fakenham : Gin And Tonic @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 7/2 Prominent until pushed along 4 out, soon lost place, ridden when weakened 2 out ....

Next up is Tuesday's...

2.55 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap hurdle over 3m 0.5f on Heavy ground worth £3,509 to the winner...

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding who has finished 131 in his last three efforts over hurdles and was a winner here over course and distance (give or take 78yds) on his last outing 27 days ago. That came under today's jockey in a big-field (16 ran) handicap at this grade on soft ground taking his handicap hurdle record to 2 wins and 3 places from 8, including...

  • 2 wins, 2 places from 7 under Adam Nicol
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 6 going left handed
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 4 in cheekpieces
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 at Wetherby
  • 1 win, 1 place at 3m0.5f/3m1f (both here)

And whilst he seems to have no real heavy ground form...(i) nor do his rivals, (ii) his previous efforts on heavy were at maiden/novice level over far shorter trips two years or more ago and (iii) offspring of the sire Milan are 16/67 (20.9% SR) for 7.32pts (+10.92% ROI) in heavy ground hurdle contests at trips of 3m to 3m2f over the past four years.

Jockey Adam Nicol is 11/38 (29% SR) for 74pts (+194.7% ROI) in handicap hurdles here at Wetherby over the past three years, whilst last year alone, runners trained by Rose Dobbin won 5 of 21 (23.8% SR) for 23.87pts (+113.7% ROI) here at this venue, including...

  • in handicaps : 4/15 (26.7%) for 18.68pts (+124.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 3/5 (60%) for 24.09pts (+81.8%)
  • ridden by Adam Nicol : 1/2 (50%) for 12.05pts (+602.5%)

Furthermore, since 2011, Mrs Dobbin's LTO winners subsequently sent off at odds of 13/8 to 9/2 are 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 33.42pts (+76% ROI), from which...

  • at 1-45 days since the LTO win : 15/37 (40.5%) for 28.5pts (+76.6%)
  • on heavy : 2/5 (40%) for 2.68pts (+53.6%)
  • at Wetherby : 2/5 940%) for 1.69pts (+33.8%)

In addition to those race-specific details above, over the past 5 years in Class 4/5 UK handicap hurdle contests, horses aged 5-8 yrs old carrying 11st13lbs to 12st5lbs and were clear top of both OR and weights won 68 of 207 (32.9% SR) for 96.6pts (+46.7% ROI)...

...whilst in that same time frame in Class 5 handicap hurdles on ground rated Good or softer, males priced at 11/1 or shorter who had won a handicap hurdle by 1 to 30 lengths LTO are 129/418 (30.9% SR) for 125.6pts at an ROI of some 30%.

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Final Fling @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betfair, Betway & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

14 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2018

  1. Dr. Reelgood98

    Hi Matt. Have decided to leave your tips alone, for now at least. I understand you can’t win em all but a few times I’ve looked at your selections and came to the conclusion they wouldn’t win, and they didn’t! Yet I still backed a couple of them! For example, your selection at Lingfield last Friday. It seems you went against your own advice to Geegeez subscribers as the selection didn’t have a good draw. Your advice for tomorrow’s Wetherby race is on heavy ground, yet it’s form isn’t great for that going. It’ll probably win now! But I think I’ll sit this one out. Thanks all the same.

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Ryan

      Chris does Stat of the Day, and I think you’ll find that regulars who stick with him through thick and thin are the most consistent long term winners. Of course, you’re more than welcome to dip into and out of SotD as you see fit. It is nearly 500 points in front with a very healthy strike rate long term, and that’s all that really needs saying.

      Good luck,
      Matt

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Matt’s probably handled it with more restraint than I would have done.
          But suffice to say that my track record means I don’t have to explain selections.

        2. Matt Bisogno Post author

          Not at all, James. It’s a common refrain from the uninitiated – and I mean nothing snide or malicious when I say that.

          There are thousands of tipsters out there, most of them terrible, and newcomers to SotD only have our word for it that we’re what we say we are.

          So it’s all fine. Oh, and we’re nice to people round here regardless! 🙂

          Cheers,
          Matt

          p.s. hope you’re keeping well

    2. Chris Worrall Post author

      …whilst he seems to have no real heavy ground form…(i) nor do his rivals, (ii) his previous efforts on heavy were at maiden/novice level over far shorter trips two years or more ago and (iii) offspring of the sire Milan are 16/67 (20.9% SR) for 7.32pts (+10.92% ROI) in heavy ground hurdle contests at trips of 3m to 3m2f over the past four years…

      Just a thought.

    3. Blokeshead

      It’s a free country, Doc, but if you stick with SotD and follow the tips religiously, the only problem you are going to have is that you will very quickly run out of BOG bookmakers who will take your bets. I’m down to one now (seriously, and it would be delusional to assume I’m not on their radar too), meaning I have to use Betfair for many/most of these bets whether I want to or not. But I’m still up more often than not, if I look long-term, e.g. SotD has FAR more winning months than losing months, even at BSP. Oh, and that 500 point claim is totally genuine, in case you really were wondering.

      And, er, thanks for yet another winner today! 🙂

  2. RomJim

    As a long term supporter of Geegeez, I cannot remember any other service where the selections are clear, up front and recorded accurately. The profit of 500 + points speaks for itself and as always, Chris and Matt are very open about how they get to the selection and you can take it or leave it. Any service has losing runs but I tend to think, that is the time to be more determined in following somebody who has delivered.
    So thanks again guys for delivering a solid successful service.
    Jim

  3. tbaker22

    oooooooochaaaaaaaaaaa
    Well done Chris.
    I think you’ll know my thoughts on “Dr. Reelgood98”
    At least those of us that didn’t sit it out ” FEEL GOOD ”
    after todays result.
    Thank you Chris.
    T

  4. stuart walker

    I have foolishly criticized Chris in the past when things were not going our way but I now know that Chris is a true professional and excellent tipster. Stick with him and you will make profit!

    PS: Thanks for the winner today

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.