Monday's Result :
3.05 Carlisle : Alto des Mottes @ 3/1 BOG PU at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, mistake 2nd, lost place 9th, soon behind, weakened 4 out (usual 5 out), tailed off when pulled up before last)
Tuesday's runner goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Gorokai @ 5/1 BOG
This 3 yr old gelding has finished 113 in his last three runs, having won at Class 5 and then Class 4 level, before a narrow defeat at Class 3 last time out. He now drops back down in class to return to Wolverhampton, where his only previous visit resulted in a runner-up finish over course and distance on his A/W debut.
He hasn't finished outside the top 3 in his four starts on the A/W to date (2113) with a 211 record at today's trip and he's 1 from 1 in this grade.
In addition to that, his trainer (David Simcock) and his jockey (Jamie Spencer) have built up a decent partnership here at Wolverhampton, winning 12 of 38 races (31.6% SR) for profits of 8.26pts (+21.7% ROI) since the start of 2010. Closer analysis of those 38 runners threw up the following profitable angles, all of which are at play here...
- male runners are 11/35 (31.4% SR) for 9.6pts (+27.4% ROI)
- those sent off at 5/1 and shorter are 12/28 (42.9% SR) for 18.3pts (+65.2% ROI)
- handicappers are 7/25 (28% SR) for 7.56pts (+30.3% ROI)
- those finishing in the first three LTO are 10/17 (52.6% SR) for 21.84pts (+114.9% ROI)
- those last seen 1 to 15 days ago are 4/8 (50% SR) for 3.81pts (+47.6% ROI)
And from that, we see that male handicappers at 5/1 and shorter are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 15.6pts (+91.6% ROI), of which those in the top 3 LTO are 6/11 (54.5% SR) for 17.6pts (+160.2% ROI) and those last seen 1-15 days ago are 3/5 (60% SR) for 5.2pts (+104% ROI)
Male handicappers at 5/1 and shorter, in the top 3 LTO, 1-15 DSLR = 2/4 (50% SR) for 2.26pts (+56.4% ROI)
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS