Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2014
Happy St. George's Day, everyone.
The last week has been nothing short of amazing here at SotD and after both Matt and myself had found winners hard to come by in March and early April, we're now on a run of five winning days in a row, but yesterday was truly special.
I had two runners that I struggled to choose between and in the end I went with One Track Mind at 11/4 BOG and when he got home by 6 lengths, I was delighted, even more so when I saw the payout was at 7/2 after a drift in the market.
The stats were too strong to ignore the following runner Ma De Fou, so like many of you, I was on that one too at 5/2 BOG and also on the double. Ma De Fou attracted support all day and went off at a very stingy 4/5. If anything, he was even more impressive than our main selection and ran out a winner by 10 lengths.
The upshot of all this was a win for SotD at 7/2, a supplementary win at 5/2 with the added bonus of a double at almost 15/1. And all that's before some of you linked my runners in with Matt's 25/1 double!
5 wins on the bounce for SotD and the site was awash with victories yesterday, so there's a little more pressure to find another winner today and I reckon that a friend of Geegeez is the man to turn to in the...
Where "the man" is Anthony Honeyball, trainer of several Geegeez-syndicated runners and one soon to appear (the aptly named The Geegeez Geegee). Anthony, somewhat unusually, has a total of four runners here for this meeting, but the one I'm most interested in is On The Move, who aims to repeat her C&D win from last time out a month ago.
The horse was stepping up considerably in trip for her handicap debut that day and was a 25/1 winner. We're not getting anywhere near that price this time, a mere 7/2 BOG is the best currently on offer.
Much of SotD's recent success has been built upon selecting trainers who are consistently profitable in handicap races and this is also the case here as...
1. Anthony Honeyball's record in NH Handicap contests since the start of 2010 shows that he has saddled up 40 winners from his 163 entries. That's a decent 24.5% strike rate which has produced level stakes profits of 111pts or 68.1% of stakes to date. From those 163 handicap runners, the record over hurdles is 25/96 (26% SR) for 86.2pts (+89.8% ROI)
If we imposed our nominal 6/1 odds cap, the handicappers' strike rate increases to a very healthy 36.1% ( 31 winners from 86) for 42.2pts profit (+40.8% ROI) with the hurdlers contributing 18 of the winners from 46 of the runners (39.1% SR) and 23.8pts of the profit, a yield of 39.3%.
2. Horses that won last time out at odds of 25/1 or higher and running within 60 days of that win at the same class (or up 1 grade) have won 105 of 467 races when priced at odds of under 10/1 since the start of 2010. This 22.5% strike rate has resulted in profits of 171.85pts, equivalent to 36.8% of stakes invested. Whilst with our 6/1 odds cap, the figures become 67/236 (28.4% SR) for 101.2pts (+42.9% ROI)
3. Former Taunton course and distance winners returning to Taunton on the back of a win (anywhere, not necessarily Taunton) have won 14 of 38 races (36.8% SR) in the last four years for profits of 12.6pts (+33% ROI). If that last run/win was here at this track, those figures are 12/31 (38.7% SR) for 15pts (40.2% ROI).
If we once again restrict ourselves to those runners priced at 6/1 or under, we get 14/30 (46.7% SR) for 20.6pts (+60% ROI) with those running here last time out winning 12 of 24 races (50% SR) for 22pts (+91.7% ROI) profit.
On The Move may have only beaten the re-opposing Frontier Vic by a head and a neck last time out, but I'm sure she'll come on for the benefit of that handicap debut and the same jockey is on board today for some familiarity, whereas there's a change of pilot for Frontier Vic.
4. I should also quickly mention that Mr Honeyball doesn't send many runners here, hence my surprise at seeing four declared, but those that come here do well. Over the last four years four of his fourteen hurdlers have been successful, generating some 45.8pts profit, but those figures are obviously skewed by On The Move's 25/1 win LTO. However, with those runners below 10/1, he has won three from eight for almost 21pts.
I'll be having a small flutter on Anthony's other handicappers here today, of course, but the official play is a 1pt win bet on On The Move at 7/2 BOG. I've gone with BetVictor for this one, but she's the same price at Bet365, but you could (and should!) always...
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