Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2013

Platinum Proof was either rusty, not good enough or both last night. He wasn't 23 lengths worse than the winner, as the jockey rightly eased off with 2 furlongs to go once he was beaten.

Nevertheless, it was on paper a 23-lengths defeat as he trotted home 8th of 9 runners to bring us back down with a bump!

A Class 4 handicap chase awaits us today in the...

3.30 Plumpton

Where I'm siding with the likely favourite Jayandbee. I'm not fond of backing favourites generally, but sometimes it pays to do so. On average they win one in every three races, so it's a case of picking the right one.

Favourites, however, tend to do better than the norm here at Plumpton with a 39.7% strike rate over the last three years. When we look at favourites in Class 4 contests like today's the record is actually very good indeed with 54 winners from 112, a strike rate of 48.2% producing level stakes profits of 22.63pts or 20.2% of stakes.

Jayandbee is one of the types of horses I've selected in the past who have been turned out pretty quickly after finally coming back into form. In other words, I look for a horse that has failed to make the frame on at least three successive occasions, before finally winning. Once this horse is turned straight back out within the month of that victory and at fairly low odds, then I'm very interested.

Quite simply, this type of National Hunt horses have won 60 times this year from 162 starts when priced at 4/1 or under with that 37% strike rate yielding profits of 37.45pts (ROI of 23.12%). 101 of these runners have been sent off as favourites (inc jt and co favs) and 43 (42.6%) of that 101 have gone on to win for profits of 26.23pts (+26% ROI).

Jayandbee comes here with a form line that reads 39694455P1, including a sequence of 8 unplaced efforts after a promising 3rd place on debut. He is, however, still unexposed as a chaser with just 4 starts to his name in this sphere, the latest being his first win at Newton Abbot, a little over three weeks ago. He stayed on gamely that day, when tackling this 3m2f trip for the first time and further improvement is expected today.

As of 1.00am, the best price for my 1pt win bbet on Jayandbee was the 9/4 BOG with Bet365, but you really should...

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1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2013

  1. martin (@smeemartin)

    Although, not favorite, Health Is Wealth would have a very similar profile and has in the past run up a sequence of 3 wins here at Plumpton all on Gd/Fm so obviously likes the place and is still 5lb below his best winning mark…probably been suffering at the hands of the assessors since but definitely capable now back in form,big danger for me..

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