Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2012
No play yesterday, as the filly Loreto got herself so worked up in the stalls that she had to be withdrawn for her own safety, and also that of her jockey. That proved to be a disappointing end to a largely frustrating week and I'm hoping to get this week off to a better start, but today looks like a typically unappealing Monday.
However, it's not all doom and gloom, as I think we might just have a little gem for you over in West Yorkshire. It is, of course, the dark side of the Pennines to us Lancastrians, but needs must!
Today's contest is a Class 4 Handicap over the minimum 5 furlong trip. The ground is already declared as soft and one horse from the original 16 has already been pulled out, so E/W backers will now only get 3 places (unless you're on at the exchanges) for the...
The overnight/early morning going at Pontefract was officially declared at soft, but from past experience the course doesn't have the best drainage and further rain is forecast / happening now (depending on when you read this!). I wouldn't be surprised if that official going report doesn't change to include the dreaded H word later.
With the testing conditions underfoot and the fact that it's a 5f dash, I've gone with Geoffrey Harker's filly Breezolini. Mr Harker's Eijazz proved to be a bit of a disappointment to us last week, but I'm hoping his filly can redress the balance today.
Today's 5 furlong trip is the optimum distance for Breezolini, as her record at this distance reads 833111. Her career record is only 3 wins and 6 places from 24 outings, so to be 3 wins and 2 places from 6 at 5 furlongs speaks for itself.
So, we know she likes the trip, but will she get the course? Well, despite not winning any of her previous three outings at Ponty, she has finished third on two occasions, opening up the prospect of another place finish today and her record on soft ground reads 201, whilst her figures on heavy ground are 132. So we've moderate course form and a good record in soft to heavy going, including an excellent 2nd place at Ayr last time out of today's mark, having already landed 2 soft-ground handicaps over 5f earlier this year.
All things considered, I was pretty happy to see Stan James offering a generous-looking 7/1 BOG this morning, so the play today is 0.5pts E/W on Breezolini at 8/1 BOG, but as always, I advise that you...