Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

8.15 Kempton : Sparkalot @ 5/2 BOG WON at 11/10 (Chased leaders, driven over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by half a length)

Next up is Thursday's...

5.15 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 2m handicap hurdle (4yo+) on soft ground worth £7,863 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has made the frame in each of his last three starts, winning once and was third last time out on handicap debut in a higher grade. He has rested over the winter and a second crack at a handicap at a lower grade might just do the trick today.

Trainer Tom Lacey has saddled four winners from just seven runners over the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2016, his NH handicappers are 31/118 (26.3% SR) for 84.3pts (+71.% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant and applicable today...

  • November-April : 28/97 (28.9%) for 91.4pts (+94.2%)
  • hurdlers : 24/90 (26.7%) for 83.6pts (+92.9%)
  • top 3 finisher LTO : 21/69 (30.4%) for 62.3pts (+90.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 14/47 (29.8%) for 57.7pts (+122.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 14/45 (31.1%) for 67pts (+148.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 6/36 (16.7%) for 23.8pts (+66%)
  • late season (ie Mar-Apr) : 9/25 (36%) for 16.8pts (+67.1%)
  • ridden by Robert Dunne : 8/23 (34.8%) for 35.8pts (+155.4%)
  • placed 3rd LTO : 5/15 933.3%) for 24.1pts (+160.6%)
  • down 1 class : 5/11 945.5%) for 24.1pts (+219.3%)
  • 4 to 10 months off track : 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.4pts (+105.7%)
  • and here at Ludlow : 1/1 (100%) for 1.79pts (+179%)

A secondary layer of reassurance comes from the fact that also since the start of 2016, handicap jumpers sired by Passing Glance are 8 from 49 (16.3% SR) for 26pts (+53% ROI) on soft or worse ground, including...

  • males at 8/38 (21.1%) for 37pts (+97.2%)
  • on Soft : 7/32 (21.9%) for 8.7pts (+27.2%)
  • males on Soft : 7/24 (29.2%) for 16.7pts (+69.6%)
  • Class 3 : 2/9 (22.2%) for 2.35pts (+26.1%)
  • and Class 3 males on Soft are 2/5 (40%) for 6.35pts (+127%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Flashing Glance @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power (the first two to show) at 5.25pm on Wednesday, with some 6/1 BOG offered by Bet365 for those lucky/quick enough to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2018

  1. Blokeshead

    Cheers, Chris. Not the first time of late that you’ve saved my day (although this time you needed some help from Nicola Currie half an hour ago). Still, job done – thank you!

      1. Blokeshead

        Won the race half an hour before Luke Morris piloted your pick to success. Everything else I backed today must have dosed up on valium for breakfast, so I really needed a couple of late winners to get back to breakeven. So … thanks again. 🙂

          1. Blokeshead

            I would say “great minds think alike”, but that would be a major insult to you! However, on this occasion, yeah … from memory, that’s the 4th time this year she’s ridden him home first.

          2. Chris Worrall Post author

            She has a good record on the McEntee horses, I’ve put some up for SotD before now.

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