Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2017

Friday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Trulee Scrumptious @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 4/1 Led, clear 7f out, ridden and headed 2f out, weakened final furlong.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Jockey Frankie Dettori has won 33 of his 152 (21.7% SR) rides here at Newbury since 2011 rewarding his legion of followers with level stakes profits of some 97.9pts at an ROI of 64.4%. These excellent figures include, of releavance today...

  • over 6-7 furlongs : 18/63 (28.6%) for 76.83pts (+121.9%)
  • in handicaps : 8/39 (20.5%) for 75.2pts (+192.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 32.2pts (+169.5%)

...making him a good bet here at Newbury and he actually had the choice of two John Gosden runners in this one and if he's happy to choose this one, who am I to disagree?

That, of course, makes the assumption that I'm happy to back a Gosden runner here, so let's see why that might be the case, shall we?

Well, the yard is 8/34 over the last fortnight and 3 from 13 in the past 7 days, so they're in good enough nick and a closer inspection of their record here on this track shows 50 winners from 248 (20.2% SR) for 55.4pts (+22.3% ROI) since 2011, which breeds further confidence in the selection.

And, of those 248 runners...

  • those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 are 40/185 (21.6%) for 73.1pts (+39.5%)
  • males are 28/145 (19.3%) for 32.7pts (+22.6%)
  • those racing over 6.5/7 furlongs are 17/62 (27.4%) for 20.9pts (+33.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20pts (+90.9%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.57pts (+53.6%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in several places at 6.10pm on Friday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Stan James for those (unlike me!) who are able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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