Tuesday's Result :
4.40 Southwell : My Renaissance @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 7/4 Towards rear, headway to track leaders over 7f out, took keen hold, led over 4f out, headed 3f out, weakened final furlong.
Wednesday's pick goes in the...
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Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG
This 7 yr old gelding was 3rd LTO in a race that probably came too soon after running the day before, but now after a rest of some 47 days, he's expected to go better and reproduce the kind of form that has seen him win twice here in the past, once over course and distance.
He's going be ridden by Jamie Spencer who has a long-term (ie since 2009) 18% strike rate at this venue, courtesy of winning 84 of his 468 races here and since the start of 2012, he is 10/52 (19.2% SR) for 24.7pts (+47.5% ROI) in handicaps over 6 to 7 furlongs on this track.
Trainer David Barron has his horses in fine fettle at present with 3 winners and 2 placers from 10 over the last week and the Barron/Spencer partnership is 19/63 (30.2% SR) for 22.6pts (+35.8% ROI) since 2010, including...
- over 5f to 7f : 18/51 (35.3%) for 29.3pts (+57.4%)
- in handicaps : 11/38 (29%) for 22.9pts (+60.4%)
- in handicaps over 5f to 7f : 11/29 (37.9%) for 31.9pts (+110.1%)
- at Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.34pts (+133.4%)
- and on the A/W : 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.4pts (+66.9%)
Steelriver is also David's only runner of the day and since 2008, his solo entrants are 113/628 (18% SR) for 225.1pts (+35.9% ROI), with the folowing at play today...
- over 5f to 7f : 84/456 (18.4%) for 191pts (+41.9%)
- on the A/W : 54/237 (22.8%) for 104.9pts (+44.3%)
- on the A/W over 5f to 7f : 42/182 (23.1%) for 91.6pts (+50.3%)
- and those ridden by Jamie Spencer are 5/18 (27.8%) for 13.5pts (+75.1%)
...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG which was available with both Betfred, Hills and Totesport at 5.30pm on Tuesday, with plenty of acceptable 7/2 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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