Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2013
Kilmurvy ran well enough yesterday but the odds on favourite didn't look like being troubled at all. In fact, only his own jumping would have beaten him. Our selection looked a runner-up all race long until late on when he faded and lost that 2nd place in the closing stages. Either way, it was a point lost!
We've a decent-looking chase for you today, as we head towards the Midlands for a Class 2 Handicap Chase. There are ten runners set to line up to tackle 2 miles, four and a half furlongs on soft ground, which is heavy in places for the...
Charlie Longsdon seems to like sending his horses to Warwick and they've been very profitable for him and his followers in the last couple of years.
Since the start of 2011, seven of his thirty-one Warwick entrants have been returned to the winners' enclosure and this 22.6% strike rate has resulted in level stakes profits of 47pts, some 152% of stakes invested. E/W backers have also seen a handsome return from their bets, courtesy of 18 successful bets (58.1%) generating 64pts profit (+105%)
Charlie has two runners here today: Reblis (currently 5/1) looks to have a reasonable chance in the 4.50 race, but faces strong opposition from Flying Award, whilst his runner an hour earlier, Frisco Depot, looks a better prospect all round and is thus our selection today.
Frisco Depot has won both over hurdles and two chases at distances from 2m 3f to 3 miles, so today's trip shouldn't be an issue. Two of his three wins to date have come on ground described as soft to heavy, so today's going should be too much of a problem either.
He was well fancied for the Hennessy Gold Cup (as low as 10/1) at Newbury in December, but his jumping wasn't brilliant that day and he was pulled up 3 out. he has won a Grade 2 event in Ireland and if those jumping errors can be ironed out, he stands a really good chance, as he tends to travel well and should get pulled along by Dashing George who'll probably give it a good go from the front.
Frisco Depot is regarded by connections as a decent sort: he holds three Cheltenham entries at present, all at longer distances than today and this lower standard of race looks like it has been targeted to get him back to winning ways and boost his confidence ahead of the festival next month.
He doesn't seem to be overburdened at the weights either today and I'd expect talented amateur Sam Waley-Cohen to make full use of his 5lb claim, as well as giving his usual 100% all out effort to get home. he's not liked by everyone, but he certainly does seem to want to win every race.
I fully expected this horse to trade around the 4/1 mark this morning, so I was surprised to see him as long as he currently is (13/2 at 10.40am with both Corals BOG and Sporting Bet non-BOG) The safety call would be the E/W bet, but I'm very confident about his chances today, so I'm all in with a 1pt win bet on Frisco Depot at 13/2 BOG with Corals. You can, of course, play it your own way and...