Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2016

Wednesday's Result :

3.10 Ludlow : Danceintothelight @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 9/2 - Disputed lead until lost place before 4 out, soon weakened

Thursday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Chelmsford

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Curzon Line @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

This 7yr old gelding was a winner here at Chelmsford last time out, five weeks ago and was so dominant that he was eased right down and still won by more then 3 lengths. That was over 7f, but he seemed to have plenty left, suggesting the extra step up to a mile should be fine, especially when he's already won three times at this trip.

Mick Easterby's LTO winners have won again on 41 of 204 handicap runs (20.1% SR) since the start of 2013, generating level stakes profits of 40.7pts (+19.9% ROI) along the way, including...

  • males winning 38 of 178 (21.4%) for 51.6pts (+29%)
  • those who won by 1-10 lengths LTO are 29/114 (25.4%) for 73.4pts (+64.4%)
  • those aged 6 or 7 are 15/63 (23.8%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%)
  • those ridden by Nathan Evans are 7/45 (15.6%) for 8.06pts (+17.9%)
  • and those whose LTO win was 31-60 days ago are 11/38 (28.9%) for 52.1pts (+137.2%)

And if that wasn't enough, the yard's form at this venue this year is excellent with 12 winners from 35 (34.3% SR), all in handicap contests, producing profits of 27.6pts at an ROI of 78.8%, broken down as follows...

  • males are 12/30 (40%) for 32.6pts (+108.6%)
  • ridden by Nathan Evans : 7/25 (28%) for 15.1pts (+60.5%)
  • aged 5-7 : 10/16 (62.5%) for 37.9pts (+236.9%)
  • 3yo+ contests : 5/15 933.3%) for 10.5pts (+70%)
  • LTO winners : 6/12 (50%) for 20.34pts (+169.5%)
  • over this 1m C&D : 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.61pts (+95.1%)
  • and at Class 4 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.64pts (+58%)

...all of which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Curzon Line at 5/2 BOG which was available from my preferred Bet365 and at least 15 others (so we should all be getting the same deal!) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see if your preferred bookie is also offering 5/2 BOG, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

 

2 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2016

  1. winderman

    All the very best to ya Chris. Have a cracking good Christmas and come out fighting Boxing Day.
    I’ve followed you for 150 selections and never have you
    Gone eight tips without winning.. come on MONDAY

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