Stat of the Day, 22nd December 2012
In what is rapidly becoming a frustrating regularity, we managed to find just one too good yesterday. The bright side of that defeat came in so much as it was a well-backed odds on favourite that beat us and also that many of you took a place bet at over even money to soften the blow. Unfortunately the official record will show another 2nd place finish at 3/1 and a loss of a point.
We venture out to the North West today and having passed an early inspection, we keep our fingers crossed for the completion of the meeting where we're trying to get a result in a competitive-looking, eight-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase over the bare two-mile trip. No prizes, however, for guessing that the ground will be heavy for the.…
Brian Ellison has a decent enough record at Haydock over the last couple of years to catch the SotD eye. Very creditable stats of 5 wins from 25 (20%) have produced level stakes profits of some 17pts (a 68% return), while his place strike rate here has been 44%, courtesy of eleven horses making the frame.
20% is admittedly a little on the low side for the benchmark I look for when compiling the SotD and I do prefer a place strike rate of at least 50% if I'm looking to take an E/W selection. However, Mr Ellison can provide us with much more than that, if we isolate his Haydock chasers. It is, of course, a much smaller sample to work with, since he has only sent five chasers to haydock in the last two years, but the record reads as three wins from five for a massive profit of 16.5pts, whilst E/W backers have been rewarded on four occasions (the only unplaced chaser was 4th at 12/1!) with an overall profit of almost 21pts.
Brian Ellison has four runners at Haydock today, but only one entrant in a chase contest: Andreo Bambaleo.
Andreo Bambaleo has proved to be a consistent sort over obstacles, making the frame a total of nine times from sixteen races (56.25%) and E/W followers have made a level stakes profit of 15pts by following him at SP.
He is unexposed over fences with today being just his third outing in this sphere. He followed up a Market Rasen win on his chase debut with a good fourth at Bangor in July and if the yard have got him firing today after a rest, he would seem to have a good shout of at least making the frame.
He will be ridden by Danny Cook today, who was on board last time out at Bangor, when the trip was far too long for him. The drop back in trip should play to his strengths more today. Incidentally, Danny Cook has a strike rate of 40% when riding for Brian Ellison at Haydock and an overall place strike rate of 57% at the course, so he's no stranger to this track.
A check on the markets at 9.50am showed a range of prices available from as low as 7/1 all the way out to 12/1, so the call for today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Andreo Bambaleo at 12/1 BOG with BetVictor, but you can, of course, always...