Stat of the Day, 21st May 2016

Friday's Result :

7.30 Haydock : Take Cover @ 5/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Led to post, made all, ridden and ran on to win by a length and a half).

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.20 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chelsea Lad at 9/2 BOG.

Why?

This unexposed (just 2 starts to date) was a winner here at Newmarket on debut in a Class 4, 7 furlong contest, where stayed on to snatch the win late on, getting home by just a short head, but the runner-up has won since to frank that form.

Chelsea Lad was then off the track for almost six months, before returning to action at Doncaster four weeks stepping up in both class and trip to run at Class over a mile, as he will today. Despite needing the run, he still ran well enough to finish as a runner-up, beaten by just three parts of a length and I'd expect him to improve further for that outing.

That feeling is backed up by the fact that since the start of 2012, 3 to 5yr olds on the Flat racing over 5f to a mile who had won two starts ago and then finished as a runner-up 16 to 60 days ago, returned to winning ways on 114 of 514 (22.2% SR) occasions, returning profits of 296.2pts at an ROI of 57.6%.

These are very good figures, but actually improve under today's conditions, as follows...

  • those last seen 16 to 30 days ago : 86/364 (23.6% SR) for 241.7pts (+66.4% ROI)
  • 3yr olds are 76/325 (23.4% SR) for 205.6pts (+63.3% ROI)
  • those racing over the 1m trip are 36/170 (21.2% SR) for 121.7pts (+71.6% ROI)
  • and Class 3 runners are 23/74 (31.1% SR) for 71.7pts (+96.9% ROI)

In addition to the above, trainer Martyn Meade's runners are 6/23 (26.1% SR) for 132.25pts (+575% ROI) here on the Rowley mile, of which those ridden by today's jockey Fergus Sweeney are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 64.7pts (+380.3% ROI) and those racing over trips of 5f to 1m are 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 139.25pts (+870.3% ROI).

And when Fergus has ridden Martyn's horses over 7f /1m here, they are 3/9 (33.3% SR) for 62.4pts (+693.4% ROI).

Obviously the Meade P/L & ROI figures are skewed by a couple of big priced winners, but the strike rates are still impressive.

And so the call is...a 1pt win bet on Chelsea Lad at 9/2 BOG with any of Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet and/or Hills who were the best on offer at 9.40pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 21st May 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris…dunno how he won that, picked up really well after the dodgem car impression. Do 365 pay first past the post?
    Paul

  2. luciano

    I’ll be totally honest Chris, the success of last year made me somewhat lazy… click on SOTD, note selection, back it >>go collect. The barren spell over the winter was in some ways a blessing in disguise ! Started to focus on my racing punting & actually READING & taking in the information. Although the results dipped, the quality was still of an extremely high standard. I was convinced we’d be back in the winners enclosure in a major way. Todays stats were fantastic… almost increased my stake on the strength of em.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      And your own experience over the winter was what frustrated me.
      The selections were, on the whole, logically sound, but failed to deliver.

      I had to dig deep sometimes and do a little soul searching on occasions during the barren spell, but I always came back to the point that I wasn’t doing anything different and that results would turn our way again.

      That said, the unflinching support given by Matt and the majority of our subscribers, helped massively.

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